polymarket-prediction-market

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polymarket-prediction-market

Polymarket预测市场

Understand Polymarket's prediction markets—binary event contracts, CLOB pricing, order books, conditional tokens, and API integration.

了解Polymarket的预测市场——二元事件合约、CLOB定价、订单簿、条件代币及API集成。

Allowed Tools

允许使用的工具

Read
Grep
Glob
WebFetch

Read
Grep
Glob
WebFetch

Core Mental Model

核心认知模型

Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market on Polygon using USDC:

Binary Outcomes: Each market has YES and NO tokens that settle at $1.00 or $0.00
Price = Probability: A YES token at $0.65 implies 65% probability of the outcome
CLOB (Central Limit Order Book): Prices determined by limit orders, not AMM
Conditional Token Framework (CTF): Outcomes represented as ERC-1155 tokens
USDC Collateral: All trading uses USDC on Polygon network

Polymarket是基于Polygon网络、使用USDC的去中心化预测市场：

二元结果：每个市场都有YES和NO代币，结算价为1.00美元或0.00美元
价格=概率：价格为0.65美元的YES代币意味着市场认为该结果发生的概率为65%
CLOB（中央限价订单簿）：价格由限价订单决定，而非自动做市商（AMM）
条件代币框架（CTF）：结果以ERC-1155代币形式呈现
USDC抵押品：所有交易均使用Polygon网络上的USDC

Data Hierarchy

数据层级

Condition (Event)
  └── Market
        ├── YES Token (token_id)
        └── NO Token (token_id)

Condition: The overarching question/event (e.g., "Will Team Liquid win?")
Market: A specific tradeable contract with YES/NO outcomes
Tokens: Each outcome is a separate ERC-1155 token with unique token_id

Condition (Event)
  └── Market
        ├── YES Token (token_id)
        └── NO Token (token_id)

Condition（事件）：核心问题/事件（例如："Will Team Liquid win?"）
Market（市场）：具有YES/NO结果的可交易合约
Tokens（代币）：每个结果都是一个具有唯一token_id的ERC-1155代币

Market Objects

市场对象

Key fields in Polymarket market data:

Field	Description
`condition_id`	Unique identifier for the condition/event
`question`	The market question text
`tokens`	Array of outcome tokens (YES/NO)
`token_id`	Unique ID for each outcome token
`outcome`	Token outcome name ("Yes" or "No")
`price`	Current mid-market price ($0.00-$1.00)
`volume`	Total trading volume in USDC
`liquidity`	Available liquidity in the order book
`end_date_iso`	When the market closes for trading
`active`	Whether market is currently tradeable
`closed`	Whether market has been resolved
`resolved`	Settlement status
`resolution`	Final outcome if resolved

Polymarket市场数据中的关键字段：

字段	描述
`condition_id`	事件的唯一标识符
`question`	市场问题文本
`tokens`	结果代币数组（YES/NO）
`token_id`	每个结果代币的唯一ID
`outcome`	代币对应的结果名称（"Yes"或"No"）
`price`	当前市场中间价（0.00-1.00美元）
`volume`	USDC计价的总交易量
`liquidity`	订单簿中的可用流动性
`end_date_iso`	市场停止交易的时间
`active`	市场当前是否可交易
`closed`	市场是否已结束交易
`resolved`	结算状态
`resolution`	若已结算，显示最终结果

Order Book Structure

订单簿结构

Polymarket uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB):

Order Book for "YES" Token
--------------------------
BIDS (Buy Orders)     |  ASKS (Sell Orders)
$0.62 - 500 shares    |  $0.64 - 300 shares
$0.61 - 1000 shares   |  $0.65 - 800 shares
$0.60 - 2000 shares   |  $0.66 - 1500 shares

Bid: Highest price buyers will pay
Ask: Lowest price sellers will accept
Spread: Difference between best bid and ask
Mid Price: (Best Bid + Best Ask) / 2

Polymarket使用中央限价订单簿（CLOB）：

Order Book for "YES" Token
--------------------------
BIDS (Buy Orders)     |  ASKS (Sell Orders)
$0.62 - 500 shares    |  $0.64 - 300 shares
$0.61 - 1000 shares   |  $0.65 - 800 shares
$0.60 - 2000 shares   |  $0.66 - 1500 shares

Bid（买盘）：买家愿意支付的最高价格
Ask（卖盘）：卖家愿意接受的最低价格
点差：最优买价与最优卖价之间的差额
中间价：(最优买价 + 最优卖价) / 2

Trading Mechanics

交易机制

Order Types

订单类型

Type	Description
GTC	Good-Til-Cancelled - stays until filled or cancelled
GTD	Good-Til-Date - expires at specified time
FOK	Fill-Or-Kill - must fill entirely or cancel

类型	描述
GTC	取消前有效 - 直到成交或取消才会从订单簿移除
GTD	指定日期前有效 - 在指定时间到期
FOK	全部成交或取消 - 必须完全成交否则取消

Position Management

仓位管理

Buy YES: Profit if outcome is true (settles at $1.00)
Buy NO: Profit if outcome is false (settles at $1.00)
Sell: Close position by selling tokens back to order book
Merge: Combine YES + NO tokens to redeem $1.00 USDC

买入YES代币：若结果为真则获利（结算价1.00美元）
买入NO代币：若结果为假则获利（结算价1.00美元）
卖出：通过将代币卖回订单簿来平仓
合并：将YES + NO代币合并以赎回1.00美元USDC

Fees

手续费

Maker Fee: ~0% (providing liquidity)
Taker Fee: ~1-2% (taking liquidity)
Fees may vary; check current fee schedule

挂单手续费：约0%（提供流动性）
吃单手续费：约1-2%（消耗流动性）
手续费可能有所变动，请查看当前手续费费率表

Settlement & Resolution

结算与结果判定

Trading Closes: Market stops accepting orders at
```
end_date_iso
```
Resolution: Oracle determines the outcome
Settlement:
- Winning tokens redeem for $1.00 USDC
- Losing tokens become worthless ($0.00)
Redemption: Users claim winnings via smart contract

交易关闭：市场在
```
end_date_iso
```
时间停止接受订单
结果判定：预言机确定最终结果
结算：
- 获胜代币可兑换1.00美元USDC
- 失败代币变得一文不值（0.00美元）
赎回：用户通过智能合约领取奖金

API Conventions

API约定

Base URLs

基础URL

Environment	URL
CLOB API	`https://clob.polymarket.com`
Gamma API	`https://gamma-api.polymarket.com`

环境	URL
CLOB API	`https://clob.polymarket.com`
Gamma API	`https://gamma-api.polymarket.com`

Public Endpoints (No Auth)

公开端点（无需认证）

Endpoint	Description
`GET /markets`	List all markets
`GET /markets/{condition_id}`	Get specific market
`GET /book`	Get order book for a token
`GET /price`	Get current prices
`GET /midpoint`	Get mid-market price

端点	描述
`GET /markets`	列出所有市场
`GET /markets/{condition_id}`	获取特定市场信息
`GET /book`	获取代币的订单簿
`GET /price`	获取当前价格
`GET /midpoint`	获取市场中间价

Authenticated Endpoints

需认证的端点

Endpoint	Description
`POST /order`	Place a new order
`DELETE /order/{order_id}`	Cancel an order
`GET /orders`	Get user's open orders
`GET /trades`	Get user's trade history

端点	描述
`POST /order`	下达新订单
`DELETE /order/{order_id}`	取消订单
`GET /orders`	获取用户的未成交订单
`GET /trades`	获取用户的交易历史

Authentication

认证方式

Polymarket uses EIP-712 signatures for authentication:

Headers:
  POLY_ADDRESS: <wallet_address>
  POLY_SIGNATURE: <eip712_signature>
  POLY_TIMESTAMP: <unix_timestamp>
  POLY_NONCE: <random_nonce>

Polymarket使用EIP-712签名进行认证：

Headers:
  POLY_ADDRESS: <wallet_address>
  POLY_SIGNATURE: <eip712_signature>
  POLY_TIMESTAMP: <unix_timestamp>
  POLY_NONCE: <random_nonce>

WebSocket (Real-time Updates)

WebSocket（实时更新）

Connect to

wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/

for:

```
price
```
- Real-time price updates
```
book
```
- Order book changes
```
trades
```
- Trade execution notifications

连接到

wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/

以获取：

```
price
```
- 实时价格更新
```
book
```
- 订单簿变动
```
trades
```
- 交易执行通知

API Response Examples

API响应示例

Market Object

市场对象

json

{
  "condition_id": "0x1234...",
  "question": "Will Team Liquid win the CS2 Major?",
  "tokens": [
    {
      "token_id": "12345",
      "outcome": "Yes",
      "price": 0.65
    },
    {
      "token_id": "12346",
      "outcome": "No",
      "price": 0.35
    }
  ],
  "volume": "150000.00",
  "liquidity": "25000.00",
  "end_date_iso": "2024-03-15T00:00:00Z",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false
}

json

{
  "condition_id": "0x1234...",
  "question": "Will Team Liquid win the CS2 Major?",
  "tokens": [
    {
      "token_id": "12345",
      "outcome": "Yes",
      "price": 0.65
    },
    {
      "token_id": "12346",
      "outcome": "No",
      "price": 0.35
    }
  ],
  "volume": "150000.00",
  "liquidity": "25000.00",
  "end_date_iso": "2024-03-15T00:00:00Z",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false
}

Order Book Response

订单簿响应

json

{
  "token_id": "12345",
  "bids": [
    {"price": "0.64", "size": "500"},
    {"price": "0.63", "size": "1000"}
  ],
  "asks": [
    {"price": "0.66", "size": "300"},
    {"price": "0.67", "size": "800"}
  ]
}

json

{
  "token_id": "12345",
  "bids": [
    {"price": "0.64", "size": "500"},
    {"price": "0.63", "size": "1000"}
  ],
  "asks": [
    {"price": "0.66", "size": "300"},
    {"price": "0.67", "size": "800"}
  ]
}

Sports & Esports Markets

体育与电竞市场

Polymarket hosts various sports and esports betting markets. Understanding the naming conventions and market structures is critical for matching markets across platforms.

Polymarket提供各类体育及电竞博彩市场。了解命名规则和市场结构对于跨平台匹配市场至关重要。

Supported Categories

支持的品类

Category	Examples
Esports	CS2, League of Legends, Valorant, Dota 2, Call of Duty
Basketball	NBA games, playoffs, championships
Soccer	Premier League, UEFA, Champions League, World Cup
American Football	NFL games, Super Bowl
Tennis	ATP, WTA, Grand Slams (Wimbledon, US Open, etc.)
MMA/Fighting	UFC events, Bellator

品类	示例
电竞	CS2、英雄联盟、Valorant、Dota 2、使命召唤
篮球	NBA赛事、季后赛、总冠军
足球	英超、欧足联、欧冠、世界杯
美式橄榄球	NFL赛事、超级碗
网球	ATP、WTA、大满贯（温网、美网等）
综合格斗	UFC赛事、Bellator

Market Naming Conventions

市场命名规则

Polymarket sports markets typically follow these patterns:

Match Winner:
  "Will [Team A] beat [Team B]?"
  "Will [Team A] win against [Team B]?"
  "[Team A] vs [Team B] - Winner"

Tournament Winner:
  "Will [Team/Player] win [Tournament]?"
  "[Tournament] Winner: [Team/Player]"

Player Props:
  "Will [Player] score [X] points?"
  "Will [Player] get [X] kills?"

Polymarket体育市场通常遵循以下模式：

比赛胜者：
  "Will [Team A] beat [Team B]?"
  "Will [Team A] win against [Team B]?"
  "[Team A] vs [Team B] - Winner"

赛事胜者：
  "Will [Team/Player] win [Tournament]?"
  "[Tournament] Winner: [Team/Player]"

选手道具：
  "Will [Player] score [X] points?"
  "Will [Player] get [X] kills?"

Common Name Variations

常见名称变体

When matching markets across platforms, watch for these variations:

Polymarket	Kalshi	Notes
Team Liquid	Team Liquid, TL	Abbreviations
G2 Esports	G2, G2 eSports	Spacing/capitalization
FaZe Clan	FaZe, Faze Clan	Case sensitivity
Natus Vincere	NaVi, Na'Vi	Common nicknames
Manchester United	Man United, Man U	Shortened names
Los Angeles Lakers	LA Lakers, Lakers	City abbreviations

跨平台匹配市场时，请注意以下变体：

Polymarket	Kalshi	说明
Team Liquid	Team Liquid, TL	缩写形式
G2 Esports	G2, G2 eSports	空格/大小写差异
FaZe Clan	FaZe, Faze Clan	大小写敏感性
Natus Vincere	NaVi, Na'Vi	常用昵称
Manchester United	Man United, Man U	简称
Los Angeles Lakers	LA Lakers, Lakers	城市缩写

Esports-Specific Patterns

电竞特定模式

CS2 (Counter-Strike 2)

CS2（Counter-Strike 2）

Market formats:
  "Will Team Liquid win vs FaZe Clan?"
  "Team Liquid vs FaZe - CS2 Major"
  "CS2 Major Champion: Team Liquid"

Common tournaments:
  - Major Championships (Copenhagen, Shanghai)
  - ESL Pro League
  - BLAST Premier
  - IEM (Intel Extreme Masters)

市场格式：
  "Will Team Liquid win vs FaZe Clan?"
  "Team Liquid vs FaZe - CS2 Major"
  "CS2 Major Champion: Team Liquid"

常见赛事：
  - Major锦标赛（哥本哈根、上海）
  - ESL职业联赛
  - BLAST Premier
  - IEM（英特尔极限大师赛）

League of Legends

英雄联盟

Market formats:
  "Will T1 win Worlds 2024?"
  "T1 vs Gen.G - LCK Finals"
  "League of Legends World Champion"

Common tournaments:
  - Worlds (World Championship)
  - MSI (Mid-Season Invitational)
  - LCK, LEC, LCS (Regional leagues)

市场格式：
  "Will T1 win Worlds 2024?"
  "T1 vs Gen.G - LCK Finals"
  "League of Legends World Champion"

常见赛事：
  - 全球总决赛（Worlds）
  - 季中冠军赛（MSI）
  - LCK、LEC、LCS（区域联赛）

Valorant

Market formats:
  "Will Sentinels win VCT Champions?"
  "Sentinels vs LOUD - VCT Finals"

Common tournaments:
  - VCT Champions
  - VCT Masters
  - Regional Challengers

市场格式：
  "Will Sentinels win VCT Champions?"
  "Sentinels vs LOUD - VCT Finals"

常见赛事：
  - VCT冠军赛
  - VCT大师赛
  - 区域挑战赛

Call of Duty

使命召唤

Market formats:
  "Will OpTic win CDL Championship?"
  "OpTic vs FaZe - CDL Major"

Common tournaments:
  - CDL (Call of Duty League) Majors
  - CDL Championship
  - Warzone events

市场格式：
  "Will OpTic win CDL Championship?"
  "OpTic vs FaZe - CDL Major"

常见赛事：
  - CDL（使命召唤联赛）Major
  - CDL总冠军赛
  - Warzone赛事

Traditional Sports Patterns

传统体育模式

NBA Basketball

NBA篮球

Market formats:
  "Will the Lakers beat the Celtics?"
  "Lakers vs Celtics - NBA Finals Game 1"
  "NBA Champion 2024"

Identifiers:
  - Team city + name (Los Angeles Lakers)
  - Just team name (Lakers)
  - Abbreviations (LAL)

市场格式：
  "Will the Lakers beat the Celtics?"
  "Lakers vs Celtics - NBA Finals Game 1"
  "NBA Champion 2024"

标识方式：
  - 城市+队名（洛杉矶湖人）
  - 仅队名（湖人）
  - 缩写（LAL）

Soccer/Football

足球

Market formats:
  "Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?"
  "Man City vs Arsenal - Premier League"
  "Champions League Winner 2024"

Leagues/Tournaments:
  - Premier League (England)
  - La Liga (Spain)
  - Serie A (Italy)
  - Bundesliga (Germany)
  - UEFA Champions League
  - UEFA Europa League
  - World Cup

市场格式：
  "Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?"
  "Man City vs Arsenal - Premier League"
  "Champions League Winner 2024"

联赛/赛事：
  - 英超（英格兰）
  - 西甲（西班牙）
  - 意甲（意大利）
  - 德甲（德国）
  - 欧冠
  - 欧联杯
  - 世界杯

NFL Football

NFL美式橄榄球

Market formats:
  "Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles?"
  "Chiefs vs Eagles - Super Bowl"
  "Super Bowl LVIII Winner"

Identifiers:
  - City + name (Kansas City Chiefs)
  - Just name (Chiefs)
  - Abbreviations (KC)

市场格式：
  "Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles?"
  "Chiefs vs Eagles - Super Bowl"
  "Super Bowl LVIII Winner"

标识方式：
  - 城市+队名（堪萨斯城酋长）
  - 仅队名（酋长）
  - 缩写（KC）

Tennis

网球

Market formats:
  "Will Djokovic win Wimbledon?"
  "Djokovic vs Alcaraz - Wimbledon Final"
  "US Open Men's Singles Winner"

Tournaments:
  - Grand Slams: Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open
  - ATP/WTA Masters events

市场格式：
  "Will Djokovic win Wimbledon?"
  "Djokovic vs Alcaraz - Wimbledon Final"
  "US Open Men's Singles Winner"

赛事：
  - 大满贯：澳网、法网、温网、美网
  - ATP/WTA大师赛

MMA/UFC

Market formats:
  "Will Jon Jones beat Stipe Miocic?"
  "Jones vs Miocic - UFC 309"
  "UFC Heavyweight Champion after UFC 309"

Identifiers:
  - Fighter full name
  - Last name only
  - Nickname ("Bones" for Jon Jones)

市场格式：
  "Will Jon Jones beat Stipe Miocic?"
  "Jones vs Miocic - UFC 309"
  "UFC Heavyweight Champion after UFC 309"

标识方式：
  - 选手全名
  - 仅姓氏
  - 昵称（Jon Jones的昵称是"Bones"）

API Filtering for Sports Markets

体育市场的API筛选

To find sports markets programmatically:

javascript

// Filter by tags/categories
GET /markets?tag=sports
GET /markets?tag=esports
GET /markets?tag=nba
GET /markets?tag=cs2

// Search by keywords in question
GET /markets?search=NBA
GET /markets?search=Team%20Liquid
GET /markets?search=UFC

// Filter active sports markets
GET /markets?active=true&tag=sports

通过编程方式查找体育市场：

javascript

// 按标签/品类筛选
GET /markets?tag=sports
GET /markets?tag=esports
GET /markets?tag=nba
GET /markets?tag=cs2

// 按问题中的关键词搜索
GET /markets?search=NBA
GET /markets?search=Team%20Liquid
GET /markets?search=UFC

// 筛选活跃的体育市场
GET /markets?active=true&tag=sports

Market Matching Strategy

市场匹配策略

For cross-platform arbitrage, use this matching approach:

Normalize team/player names
- Remove special characters:
```
FaZe Clan
```
  →
```
faze clan
```
- Handle abbreviations:
```
TL
```
  →
```
team liquid
```
- Map nicknames:
```
NaVi
```
  →
```
natus vincere
```
Extract key entities
- Team A name
- Team B name
- Tournament/League name
- Match date/time
Match by similarity
- Levenshtein distance for fuzzy matching
- Token overlap for multi-word names
- Date proximity for same matchup
Verify market type
- Both markets must be "match winner" type
- Same teams/players involved
- Same event timeframe

对于跨平台套利，使用以下匹配方法：

标准化战队/选手名称
- 移除特殊字符：
```
FaZe Clan
```
  →
```
faze clan
```
- 处理缩写：
```
TL
```
  →
```
team liquid
```
- 映射昵称：
```
NaVi
```
  →
```
natus vincere
```
提取关键实体
- A队名称
- B队名称
- 赛事/联赛名称
- 比赛日期/时间
相似度匹配
- 使用Levenshtein距离进行模糊匹配
- 多词名称的Token重叠匹配
- 同一事件的日期 proximity 匹配
验证市场类型
- 两个市场必须都是"比赛胜者"类型
- 涉及相同的战队/选手
- 同一事件时间范围

Example: Cross-Platform Match

示例：跨平台匹配

Polymarket Market:
  Question: "Will Team Liquid beat G2 Esports?"
  YES price: $0.55
  End date: 2024-03-15

Kalshi Market:
  Title: "Team Liquid vs G2 - CS2 Major Semifinal"
  YES price: $0.52
  NO price: $0.51

Matching confidence: HIGH
- Same teams (Team Liquid, G2)
- Similar timeframe
- Both match-winner markets

Arbitrage check:
  Polymarket NO: $0.45
  Kalshi YES: $0.52
  Total: $0.97 → $0.03 profit potential

Polymarket市场：
  问题："Will Team Liquid beat G2 Esports?"
  YES价格：0.55美元
  结束日期：2024-03-15

Kalshi市场：
  标题："Team Liquid vs G2 - CS2 Major Semifinal"
  YES价格：0.52美元
  NO价格：0.51美元

匹配置信度：高
- 相同战队（Team Liquid、G2）
- 时间范围相近
- 均为比赛胜者市场

套利检查：
  Polymarket NO价格：0.45美元
  Kalshi YES价格：0.52美元
  总成本：0.97美元 → 潜在利润0.03美元

Application Guidance

应用指南

When answering questions about Polymarket:

Clarify terminology: Explain that prices represent implied probabilities
Highlight CLOB: Unlike AMMs, Polymarket uses limit orders
Explain tokens: YES/NO are separate tradeable ERC-1155 tokens
Note fees: Taker fees reduce profit margins
Mention settlement: Winning tokens redeem at exactly $1.00
Stay neutral: Do not provide financial advice or predictions

回答关于Polymarket的问题时：

明确术语：解释价格代表隐含概率
突出CLOB：与AMM不同，Polymarket使用限价订单
说明代币：YES/NO是可独立交易的ERC-1155代币
注意手续费：吃单手续费会降低利润空间
提及结算：获胜代币可兑换1.00美元
保持中立：不提供财务建议或预测

Arbitrage Context (ArbiBot)

套利背景（ArbiBot）

For cross-platform arbitrage with Kalshi:

Concept	Polymarket	Kalshi
Settlement	$1.00 USDC	$1.00 USD
Order Type	CLOB	CLOB
Currency	USDC (Polygon)	USD
Auth	EIP-712 Signatures	RSA Signatures
Fees	~1-2% taker	Variable/Quadratic

与Kalshi进行跨平台套利：

概念	Polymarket	Kalshi
结算	1.00美元USDC	1.00美元USD
订单类型	CLOB	CLOB
货币	USDC（Polygon）	USD
认证	EIP-712签名	RSA签名
手续费	约1-2%吃单费	可变/二次费率

Valid Arbitrage Strategy

有效套利策略

Buy opposing outcomes across platforms when total cost < $1.00:

Example:
  Polymarket YES @ $0.45
  Kalshi NO @ $0.48
  Total Cost: $0.93
  Guaranteed Profit: $0.07 (one side pays $1.00)

当总成本低于1.00美元时，在不同平台买入相反结果：

示例：
  Polymarket YES @ 0.45美元
  Kalshi NO @ 0.48美元
  总成本：0.93美元
  保证利润：0.07美元（其中一方将支付1.00美元）

Examples

示例

Explaining a Price

价格解释

"The YES token trading at $0.72 means the market collectively estimates a 72% probability of this outcome occurring."

"YES代币交易价格为0.72美元，意味着市场整体估计该结果发生的概率为72%。"

Describing Order Execution

订单执行说明

"Your limit order to buy 100 YES shares at $0.65 will sit in the order book until someone sells at that price or lower."

"你以0.65美元买入100份YES代币的限价订单将留在订单簿中，直到有人以该价格或更低价格卖出。"

Settlement Explanation

结算说明

"If Team Liquid wins, your YES tokens settle at $1.00 each. If they lose, those tokens become worthless, but any NO tokens would pay out $1.00."

"如果Team Liquid获胜，你的YES代币将以1.00美元每份结算。如果他们失败，这些代币将变得一文不值，但你持有的NO代币将支付1.00美元每份。"