IRON LAW: Return Logistics Costs 3-5× More Than Outbound — Budget for It or Die

Agents plan outbound shipping costs but systematically ignore returns.
Cross-border return rates run 15-30% for apparel, and each return costs
3-5× the outbound shipment (reverse customs, restocking, re-export duties,
currency loss). If your margin can't absorb a 20% return rate at 4× cost,
the overseas warehouse model is a cash trap regardless of forward volume.
Calculate the break-even return rate BEFORE committing to a fulfillment model.

Monthly orders to one country < 50 → Direct Mail
Monthly orders 50-500 → Consider Bonded Warehouse
Monthly orders > 500 → Overseas Warehouse justified

# Cross-Border Logistics Plan: {Product} → {Destination}

## Current State
- Monthly orders: {N}
- Current model: {direct mail / none}
- Avg delivery time: {days}

## Recommended Model
- Model: {Direct Mail / Bonded / Overseas Warehouse}
- Rationale: {volume, speed requirement, cost}

## Cost Comparison
| Model | Per-Order Cost | Monthly Fixed | Total (at {N} orders) |
|-------|---------------|-------------|---------------------|
| Direct Mail | ${X} | $0 | ${X} |
| Overseas Warehouse | ${X} | ${X} | ${X} |

## Implementation Plan
| Phase | Action | Timeline |
|-------|--------|----------|
| 1 | {step} | {weeks} |