soc-cognitive-bias

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Cognitive Bias Analysis

认知偏差分析

Overview

概述

Cognitive biases are systematic deviations from rational judgment. They're not random errors — they're predictable patterns that affect everyone, including experts. This skill helps identify which biases are at play in a specific decision context and design countermeasures.

认知偏差是偏离理性判断的系统性偏差。它们并非随机错误，而是会影响所有人（包括专家）的可预测模式。本技能可帮助识别特定决策场景中存在的偏差类型，并设计应对措施。

Framework

框架

IRON LAW: Name the Specific Bias, Not Just "Bias"

"This decision might be biased" is not analysis. Identify the SPECIFIC
bias by name, explain its mechanism, and show how it applies to this
particular situation. Different biases require different countermeasures.

IRON LAW: Name the Specific Bias, Not Just "Bias"

"This decision might be biased" is not analysis. Identify the SPECIFIC
bias by name, explain its mechanism, and show how it applies to this
particular situation. Different biases require different countermeasures.

Bias Audit Process

偏差审计流程

Describe the decision: What is being decided? By whom? Based on what evidence?
Identify potential biases by name: Which specific biases (confirmation, anchoring, sunk cost, groupthink, overconfidence, availability, etc.) could be influencing this decision?
Find the evidence: What specific behavior or reasoning pattern indicates the bias?
Assess impact: How much does this bias affect the decision quality? (High/Med/Low)
Design countermeasures: What specific debiasing technique addresses each identified bias?

For the full bias catalog (12 biases × mechanism × example) and debiasing techniques per bias, see

references/debiasing-protocols.md

描述决策：要做什么决策？由谁制定决策？基于哪些证据？
按名称识别潜在偏差：哪些特定偏差（确认偏差、锚定效应、沉没成本、群体思维、过度自信、可得性启发法等）可能影响该决策？
寻找证据：哪些特定行为或推理模式表明存在偏差？
评估影响：该偏差对决策质量的影响程度如何？（高/中/低）
设计应对措施：哪种特定的去偏技术可以解决每个已识别的偏差？

如需完整的偏差目录（12种偏差×机制×示例）以及针对每种偏差的去偏技术，请参阅

references/debiasing-protocols.md

。

Output Format

输出格式

markdown

undefined

markdown

undefined

Cognitive Bias Audit: {Decision Context}

Decision Under Review

Decision: {what is being decided}
Decision-makers: {who}
Current leaning: {which way they're leaning}

Decision: {what is being decided}
Decision-makers: {who}
Current leaning: {which way they're leaning}

Biases Identified

Bias	Evidence	Impact	Countermeasure
{name}	{specific behavior/reasoning}	H/M/L	{debiasing technique}

Bias	Evidence	Impact	Countermeasure
{name}	{specific behavior/reasoning}	H/M/L	{debiasing technique}

Debiased Recommendation

{What the decision looks like after accounting for identified biases}

undefined

{What the decision looks like after accounting for identified biases}

undefined

Examples

示例

Correct Application

正确应用场景

Scenario: Company deciding whether to continue a failing product launch (6 months in, NT$5M spent)

Bias	Evidence	Impact
Sunk cost	"We've already invested NT$5M, we can't stop now"	High — past spending is irrecoverable and irrelevant to the forward decision
Overconfidence	"Our revised forecast shows it will turn around in Q3" — but previous 3 forecasts were also wrong	Medium — team is systematically overestimating success probability
Confirmation	Team only citing the 2 positive customer reviews while ignoring 50 negative ones	High — selectively filtering information

Debiased question: "If a competitor offered us this product line for free, would we take it?" If the answer is no, the product should be discontinued regardless of sunk costs ✓

场景：公司决定是否继续一项失败的产品发布（已投入6个月，花费500万新台币）

偏差	证据	影响
沉没成本谬误	“我们已经投入了500万新台币，不能现在停下来”	高——过去的支出已无法收回，与未来决策无关
过度自信偏差	“我们的修订预测显示产品将在第三季度扭亏为盈”——但之前的3次预测均不准确	中——团队系统性高估成功概率
确认偏差	团队仅引用2条正面客户评价，却忽略了50条负面评价	高——选择性筛选信息

去偏问题：“如果竞争对手免费向我们提供这条产品线，我们会接受吗？”如果答案是否定的，那么无论沉没成本如何，都应停止该产品 ✓

Incorrect Application

错误应用场景

"The team is biased" without specifying which bias → Not actionable. Violates Iron Law: name the specific bias.

仅说“团队存在偏差”却未指明具体偏差类型 → 不具备可操作性。违反铁律：必须指明具体偏差名称。

Gotchas

注意事项

Everyone has biases, including you: The analyst conducting the bias audit is also biased. Use structured processes (checklists, red teams) rather than relying on self-awareness.
Bias identification ≠ bias elimination: Knowing about a bias reduces but does not eliminate its effect. Debiasing requires structural interventions (processes, incentives), not just awareness.
Motivated reasoning looks like analysis: When someone has a preferred outcome, they unconsciously construct logical-sounding arguments for it. Check: did the conclusion come before or after the analysis?
False balance: Not every decision is biased. Sometimes the team's leaning is correct. Don't force-fit biases where they don't exist.
Cultural context: Some biases manifest differently across cultures. Authority bias is stronger in hierarchical cultures. Groupthink manifests differently in collectivist vs individualist settings.

人人都有偏差，包括你：进行偏差审计的分析师也存在偏差。应使用结构化流程（如检查清单、红队评审），而非依赖自我认知。
识别偏差≠消除偏差：了解偏差会降低其影响，但无法完全消除。去偏需要结构性干预（流程、激励措施），而非仅仅提高意识。
动机性推理看似分析：当某人有偏好的结果时，会无意识地构建听起来合乎逻辑的论据。检查：结论是在分析之前还是之后得出的？
虚假平衡：并非每个决策都存在偏差。有时团队的倾向是正确的。不要在不存在偏差的地方强行套用偏差。
文化背景：某些偏差在不同文化中的表现形式不同。权威偏差在层级文化中更为明显。群体思维在集体主义文化与个人主义文化中的表现形式不同。

References

参考资料

For behavioral economics applications of biases, see the econ-behavioral skill
For group decision-making debiasing protocols, see
```
references/debiasing-protocols.md
```

如需了解偏差在行为经济学中的应用，请参阅econ-behavioral技能
如需了解群体决策的去偏协议，请参阅
```
references/debiasing-protocols.md
```