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Promotion ROI Analysis

促销ROI分析

Framework

分析框架

IRON LAW: Measure INCREMENTAL Sales, Not Total Sales During Promo

A promotion that generates $100K in revenue during a sale week looks great —
until you realize $80K would have happened anyway (baseline). The incremental
lift is only $20K. If the discount cost $25K in margin, the promo LOST money.

Promo ROI = (Incremental Revenue × Margin - Promo Cost) / Promo Cost
IRON LAW: Measure INCREMENTAL Sales, Not Total Sales During Promo

A promotion that generates $100K in revenue during a sale week looks great —
until you realize $80K would have happened anyway (baseline). The incremental
lift is only $20K. If the discount cost $25K in margin, the promo LOST money.

Promo ROI = (Incremental Revenue × Margin - Promo Cost) / Promo Cost

Key Metrics

核心指标

MetricFormula
Incremental RevenuePromo period revenue - Baseline revenue (what would have happened without promo)
Promo CostDiscount amount + marketing spend + operational cost
Promo ROI(Incremental Gross Profit - Promo Cost) / Promo Cost
Cannibalization Rate% of promo sales that would have occurred at full price
Pull-Forward Rate% of promo sales that are just earlier purchases (customers would have bought next week anyway)
指标公式
增量收入促销期间收入 - 基准收入（无促销情况下的预期收入）
促销成本折扣金额 + 营销投入 + 运营成本
促销ROI(增量毛利润 - 促销成本) / 促销成本
客户分流率促销销售中原本会以全价购买的占比
提前购买率促销销售中属于提前购买的占比（客户原本会在后续时段购买）

Promo Type Comparison

促销类型对比

TypeMechanismProsCons
% Discount20% off everythingSimple, high trafficErodes brand, trains discount-waiting
$ OffNT$200 off orders >NT$1000Drives AOV upLess exciting for low-AOV customers
BOGOBuy one get one freeMoves inventory fast50% margin hit, attracts deal-seekers
Gift with purchaseFree item with min spendProtects price perceptionCost of gift, may not drive incremental
Flash saleTime-limited deep discountUrgency, high engagementOperational stress, cannibalization
Loyalty pointsEarn/redeem pointsBuilds retention, deferred costComplex to manage, redemption liability
类型运作机制优势劣势
百分比折扣全场8折（示例）简单易懂，引流效果好损害品牌形象，培养客户等待折扣的习惯
固定金额减免订单满NT$1000减NT$200提升客单价对低客单价客户吸引力不足
买一送一买一件送一件快速清库存毛利润损失50%，吸引价格敏感型客户
满额赠礼消费满额赠送礼品维护价格感知礼品成本高，可能无法带动增量销售
闪购限时深度折扣制造紧迫感，参与度高运营压力大，客户分流严重
积分奖励消费赚积分/用积分抵扣提升客户留存，成本延迟支付管理复杂，存在积分兑换负债

Analysis Steps

分析步骤

Phase 1: Establish Baseline
  • What would revenue have been without the promo? (prior period, prior year same period, or control group)
  • Account for seasonality, day-of-week effects, and trend
Phase 2: Calculate Incremental Impact
  • Total promo revenue - baseline = incremental
  • Subtract cannibalization and pull-forward estimates
  • Calculate gross profit on incremental (not revenue)
Phase 3: Calculate Full Cost
  • Discount dollars given up
  • Marketing spend (ads, email, creative production)
  • Operational cost (warehouse overtime, customer service spike)
Phase 4: Compute ROI and Decide
  • ROI > 0: Promo was profitable
  • ROI < 0 but strategic (new customer acquisition, inventory clearance): May still be justified
  • ROI < 0 with no strategic rationale: Don't repeat
阶段1：确立基准线
  • 无促销情况下的预期收入是多少？（可参考往期同期、去年同期或对照组数据）
  • 考虑季节性、周度效应以及趋势变化
阶段2：计算增量影响
  • 促销总营收 - 基准营收 = 增量营收
  • 减去客户分流和提前购买的估算值
  • 计算增量营收对应的毛利润（而非总营收）
阶段3：计算总成本
  • 折扣让利金额
  • 营销投入（广告、邮件、创意制作等）
  • 运营成本（仓库加班、客服激增带来的成本）
阶段4：计算ROI并决策
  • ROI > 0：促销盈利
  • ROI < 0但具备战略意义（如新客获取、清库存）：仍可能具备合理性
  • ROI < 0且无战略依据：避免重复开展

Output Format

输出格式

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

Promo ROI Report: {Promotion Name}

促销ROI报告：{促销名称}

Promo Summary

促销摘要

  • Type: {discount type}
  • Period: {dates}
  • Offer: {details}
  • 类型：{折扣类型}
  • 周期：{活动日期}
  • 活动内容：{具体详情}

Results

分析结果

MetricValue
Total Revenue (promo period)${X}
Baseline Revenue (estimated)${X}
Incremental Revenue${X}
Incremental Gross Profit${X}
Promo Cost (discount + marketing + ops)${X}
Promo ROI{X%}
指标数值
促销期间总营收${X}
估算基准营收${X}
增量营收${X}
增量毛利润${X}
促销总成本（折扣+营销+运营）${X}
促销ROI{X%}

Profitability Assessment

盈利评估

{Profitable / Unprofitable — with context}
{盈利/亏损 — 附具体说明}

Recommendation

建议

{Repeat / Modify / Discontinue — with rationale}
undefined
{重复开展/调整优化/停止使用 — 附理由}
undefined

Gotchas

注意事项

  • Baseline estimation is the hardest part: The accuracy of your ROI depends on how well you estimate what would have happened without the promo. Use prior year same period as a starting point, adjust for trend.
  • Post-promo dip is real: Sales often drop BELOW baseline after a promotion (customers pulled purchases forward). Include the dip period in your analysis.
  • Discounts are addictive: Customers learn to wait for sales. Track the % of revenue sold at full price over time — if it's declining, you have a discount dependency problem.
  • New vs existing customer mix matters: A promo that acquires 500 new customers at negative ROI may be worth it if their LTV justifies the acquisition cost. Track separately.
  • 基准线估算是最难点：ROI的准确性取决于你对无促销情况下预期收入的估算精度。以去年同期数据为起点，结合趋势进行调整。
  • 促销后销量下滑是真实存在的：促销结束后销量往往会低于基准线（客户提前购买了后续需要的商品）。分析时需纳入促销后的下滑期数据。
  • 折扣具有成瘾性：客户会学会等待折扣。跟踪全价销售占营收的比例变化——如果该比例持续下降，说明存在折扣依赖问题。
  • 新老客户占比很重要：即使ROI为负，但如果促销带来了500名新客户，且这些客户的终身价值（LTV）足以覆盖获客成本，那么该促销仍可能值得。需单独跟踪新老客户数据。

References

参考资料

  • For A/B testing promotional offers, see 
    references/promo-testing.md
  • 关于促销方案的A/B测试，可参考 
    references/promo-testing.md