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Inventory Health Analysis

库存健康分析

Overview

概述

Inventory health balances two risks: stockouts (lost sales, unhappy customers) and overstock (carrying costs, obsolescence). This skill provides tools to measure, classify, and optimize inventory levels.
库存健康需要平衡两类风险：缺货（损失销售额、客户不满）和积压（持有成本、过时损耗）。此技能提供衡量、分类和优化库存水平的工具。

Framework

框架

IRON LAW: Not All SKUs Deserve Equal Attention

ABC classification shows that ~20% of SKUs drive ~80% of revenue.
Treat A-items (top 20% revenue) with tight control and frequent review.
C-items (bottom 50% revenue) get simple rules and less attention.
Equal treatment of all SKUs wastes resources on low-impact items.
IRON LAW: Not All SKUs Deserve Equal Attention

ABC classification shows that ~20% of SKUs drive ~80% of revenue.
Treat A-items (top 20% revenue) with tight control and frequent review.
C-items (bottom 50% revenue) get simple rules and less attention.
Equal treatment of all SKUs wastes resources on low-impact items.

Key Metrics

核心指标

MetricFormulaHealthy Range
Inventory TurnoverCOGS / Avg Inventory4-12x/year (industry-dependent)
Days of Inventory (DOI)365 / Inventory Turnover30-90 days
Stockout RateStockout incidents / Total demand occasions< 2-5%
Fill RateOrders filled completely / Total orders> 95%
Carrying CostAvg Inventory × Carrying Cost % (typically 20-30%/year)Minimize
Dead Stock %Items with zero sales in 6+ months / Total SKUs< 10%
指标公式健康范围
Inventory TurnoverCOGS / Avg Inventory每年4-12次（因行业而异）
Days of Inventory (DOI)365 / Inventory Turnover30-90天
Stockout RateStockout incidents / Total demand occasions< 2-5%
Fill RateOrders filled completely / Total orders> 95%
Carrying CostAvg Inventory × Carrying Cost % (typically 20-30%/year)尽可能降低
Dead Stock %Items with zero sales in 6+ months / Total SKUs< 10%

ABC Classification

ABC分类

ClassRevenue %SKU %Strategy
A~80%~20%Tight control, frequent review, safety stock optimized
B~15%~30%Moderate control, periodic review
C~5%~50%Simple rules, min/max levels, consider dropping
类别营收占比SKU占比策略
A~80%~20%严格管控、频繁复盘、优化安全库存
B~15%~30%适度管控、定期复盘
C~5%~50%简单规则、设置最低/最高库存水平、考虑淘汰

Safety Stock Calculation

安全库存计算

Safety Stock = Z × σ_d × √(Lead Time)

Where:
- Z = service level factor (1.65 for 95%, 2.33 for 99%)
- σ_d = standard deviation of daily demand
- Lead Time = supplier lead time in days
Safety Stock = Z × σ_d × √(Lead Time)

Where:
- Z = service level factor (1.65 for 95%, 2.33 for 99%)
- σ_d = standard deviation of daily demand
- Lead Time = supplier lead time in days

Reorder Point

补货点

Reorder Point = (Average Daily Demand × Lead Time) + Safety Stock
Reorder Point = (Average Daily Demand × Lead Time) + Safety Stock

Diagnosis Steps

诊断步骤

Phase 1: Overall Health Check
  • Calculate turnover and DOI for total inventory
  • Compare to industry benchmarks
  • Identify trend: improving or deteriorating?
Phase 2: ABC Classification
  • Rank all SKUs by revenue contribution
  • Classify into A/B/C
  • Check: are A-items well-stocked? Are C-items over-stocked?
Phase 3: Problem Identification
  • Overstock: DOI > 90 days, dead stock > 10%, carrying costs rising
  • Stockout: Fill rate < 95%, lost sales reports, customer complaints
  • Imbalance: A-items understocked while C-items overstocked
Phase 4: Optimization
  • Set safety stock by ABC class
  • Implement reorder points for A-items
  • Liquidate dead stock (discount, bundle, donate)
  • Reduce lead times through supplier negotiation
阶段1：整体健康检查
  • 计算总库存的周转率和DOI
  • 与行业基准对比
  • 识别趋势：改善还是恶化？
阶段2：ABC分类
  • 按营收贡献对所有SKU排序
  • 分为A/B/C三类
  • 核查：A类库存是否充足？C类是否积压？
阶段3：问题识别
  • 积压：DOI > 90天，滞销库存占比>10%，持有成本上升
  • 缺货：订单满足率<95%，有销售额损失记录，客户投诉
  • 失衡：A类库存不足但C类库存积压
阶段4：优化方案
  • 按ABC类别设置安全库存
  • 为A类SKU设置补货点
  • 清仓处理滞销库存（打折、捆绑销售、捐赠）
  • 通过供应商谈判缩短交货周期

Output Format

输出格式

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

Inventory Health Report: {Business}

Inventory Health Report: {Business}

Summary

Summary

MetricCurrentTargetStatus
Turnover{X}x{X}x🟢/🟡/🔴
DOI{X} days{X} days🟢/🟡/🔴
Fill Rate{X%}>95%🟢/🟡/🔴
Dead Stock{X%}<10%🟢/🟡/🔴
MetricCurrentTargetStatus
Turnover{X}x{X}x🟢/🟡/🔴
DOI{X} days{X} days🟢/🟡/🔴
Fill Rate{X%}>95%🟢/🟡/🔴
Dead Stock{X%}<10%🟢/🟡/🔴

ABC Distribution

ABC Distribution

ClassSKUsRevenue %Avg DOIIssue
A{N}{%}{days}{stockout risk?}
B{N}{%}{days}...
C{N}{%}{days}{overstock?}
ClassSKUsRevenue %Avg DOIIssue
A{N}{%}{days}{stockout risk?}
B{N}{%}{days}...
C{N}{%}{days}{overstock?}

Top Issues

Top Issues

  1. {issue with specific SKUs and data}
  1. {issue with specific SKUs and data}

Recommendations

Recommendations

  1. {action with expected impact}
undefined
  1. {action with expected impact}
undefined

Gotchas

注意事项

  • Seasonal products need separate treatment: Swimsuits in January will show as "dead stock" but shouldn't be liquidated. Use seasonal adjustment or analyze by season.
  • Inventory turnover varies hugely by industry: Grocery: 20-50x/year. Fashion: 4-6x. Electronics: 6-12x. Always benchmark within industry.
  • Low turnover ≠ bad if intentional: Strategic inventory (buying ahead of price increases, securing supply) may justify lower turnover.
  • ABC classifications shift: A product that was A-class last year may be C-class this year. Reclassify quarterly.
  • Carrying cost is often underestimated: Include: warehouse rent, insurance, obsolescence, capital cost (opportunity cost of money tied up), handling labor. Total is typically 20-30% of inventory value per year.
  • 季节性产品需单独处理：一月份的泳衣会被标记为“滞销库存”，但不应进行清仓处理。需使用季节性调整或按季节分析。
  • 库存周转率因行业差异巨大：零售业：每年20-50次；时尚业：4-6次；电子业：6-12次。始终以行业内基准为参考。
  • 低周转率≠不良状况（若为有意为之）：战略性库存（提前采购以应对价格上涨、保障供应）可作为低周转率的合理理由。
  • ABC分类会动态变化：去年属于A类的产品今年可能变为C类。需每季度重新分类。
  • 持有成本常被低估：包含：仓库租金、保险、过时损耗、资金成本（占用资金的机会成本）、搬运人力。总成本通常为每年库存价值的20-30%。

References

参考资料

  • For EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) model, see 
    references/eoq-model.md
  • For seasonal demand forecasting, see 
    references/seasonal-forecasting.md
  • 关于EOQ（经济订货量）模型，请查看 
    references/eoq-model.md
  • 关于季节性需求预测，请查看 
    references/seasonal-forecasting.md