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Unit Economics

单位经济效益

Overview

概述

Unit economics measures profitability at the single-unit level — per customer, per transaction, or per product. If unit economics are negative, scaling makes losses worse, not better. Positive unit economics are the prerequisite for sustainable growth.
单位经济效益衡量的是单个单元层面的盈利能力——即每位客户、每笔交易或每个产品。如果单位经济效益为负，扩张只会加剧亏损，而非改善状况。正向的单位经济效益是可持续增长的先决条件。

Framework

框架

IRON LAW: If Unit Economics Are Negative, Growth = Faster Death

Scaling a business with negative unit economics means losing more money
faster. "We'll make it up in volume" only works if variable costs per unit
decrease with scale (economies of scale). If they don't, more volume = more losses.

Prove unit economics are positive BEFORE investing in growth.
IRON LAW: If Unit Economics Are Negative, Growth = Faster Death

Scaling a business with negative unit economics means losing more money
faster. "We'll make it up in volume" only works if variable costs per unit
decrease with scale (economies of scale). If they don't, more volume = more losses.

Prove unit economics are positive BEFORE investing in growth.

Key Metrics by Business Model

不同商业模式的核心指标

Subscription/SaaS:
MetricFormula
CACTotal acquisition spend / New customers
LTVARPU × Gross Margin × (1/Churn Rate)
LTV:CACMust be > 3:1
Payback PeriodCAC / (Monthly ARPU × Gross Margin)
Net Revenue Retention(Starting MRR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / Starting MRR
E-commerce/Marketplace:
MetricFormula
AOVTotal Revenue / Number of Orders
Contribution Margin per OrderAOV - COGS - Shipping - Payment fees - Returns
Repeat RateReturning customers / Total customers
Fully-loaded CACTotal marketing / New customers
On-demand/Delivery:
MetricFormula
Revenue per TripOrder value × Take rate
Cost per TripDriver pay + Support + Insurance + Incentives
Contribution per TripRevenue - Cost per Trip
Orders per Day per DriverUtilization metric
订阅/SaaS模式：
指标公式
CAC总获客支出 / 新增客户数
LTVARPU × 毛利率 × (1/客户流失率)
LTV:CAC需大于3:1
回收期CAC / (月度ARPU × 毛利率)
净收入留存率(期初MRR + 扩张收入 - 收缩收入 - 流失收入) / 期初MRR
电商/平台模式：
指标公式
AOV总收入 / 订单数
每单边际贡献AOV - 商品成本 - 运费 - 支付手续费 - 退货成本
复购率回头客数 / 总客户数
全成本CAC总营销支出 / 新增客户数
按需服务/配送模式：
指标公式
每行程收入订单金额 × 抽成比例
每行程成本司机薪资 + 客服支持 + 保险 + 激励费用
每行程边际贡献收入 - 每行程成本
司机日均订单数利用率指标

Analysis Steps

分析步骤

  1. Define the unit: What is one "unit"? (customer, order, trip, seat)
  2. Calculate revenue per unit: What does each unit generate?
  3. Calculate variable cost per unit: What does each unit cost?
  4. Calculate contribution margin: Revenue - Variable cost
  5. Layer fixed costs: At what volume do you cover fixed costs? (→ break-even)
  6. Assess scalability: Do unit economics improve or degrade at 10x volume?
  1. 定义单元：什么是一个“单元”？（客户、订单、行程、席位）
  2. 计算单位收入：每个单元能产生多少收入？
  3. 计算单位可变成本：每个单元的成本是多少？
  4. 计算边际贡献：收入 - 可变成本
  5. 叠加固定成本：需要达到多少交易量才能覆盖固定成本？（→ 盈亏平衡）
  6. 评估可扩展性：当交易量达到10倍时，单位经济效益会改善还是恶化？

Output Format

输出格式

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

Unit Economics: {Business}

Unit Economics: {Business}

Unit Definition

Unit Definition

  • Unit: {customer / order / trip}
  • Time period: {monthly / per-transaction}
  • Unit: {customer / order / trip}
  • Time period: {monthly / per-transaction}

Per-Unit Economics

Per-Unit Economics

MetricValue
Revenue per unit${X}
Variable cost per unit${X}
Contribution margin${X} ({X%})
MetricValue
Revenue per unit${X}
Variable cost per unit${X}
Contribution margin${X} ({X%})

Scalability Assessment

Scalability Assessment

VolumeUnit RevenueUnit CostCMNotes
Current ({N})${X}${X}{X%}baseline
3x ({N})${X}${X}{X%}{economies of scale?}
10x ({N})${X}${X}{X%}{what changes?}
VolumeUnit RevenueUnit CostCMNotes
Current ({N})${X}${X}{X%}baseline
3x ({N})${X}${X}{X%}{economies of scale?}
10x ({N})${X}${X}{X%}{what changes?}

Verdict

Verdict

{Positive/negative unit economics, scalability assessment, key lever to improve}
undefined
{Positive/negative unit economics, scalability assessment, key lever to improve}
undefined

Examples

示例

Correct Application

正确应用场景

Scenario: Unit economics for a Taiwan food delivery startup
  • Revenue per order: NT$350 × 30% take rate = NT$105
  • Variable costs: Driver pay NT$65 + Payment fee NT$10 + Support NT$5 = NT$80
  • Contribution margin: NT$25/order (23.8%) ✓
  • At 10x scale: Driver pay drops to NT$55 (better routing), CM improves to NT$35 (33%)
  • Verdict: Marginally positive, scale-dependent — needs volume for viability
场景： 某台湾外卖初创企业的单位经济效益分析
  • 每单收入：新台币350元 × 30%抽成 = 新台币105元
  • 可变成本：司机薪资新台币65元 + 支付手续费新台币10元 + 客服支持新台币5元 = 新台币80元
  • 边际贡献：每单新台币25元（23.8%） ✓
  • 当交易量达到10倍时：司机薪资降至新台币55元（路线优化），边际贡献提升至新台币35元（33%）
  • 结论：边际正向，依赖规模——需达到一定交易量才能实现可行性

Incorrect Application

错误应用场景

  • "Revenue per customer is NT$500, cost per customer is NT$200, so we make NT$300 per customer" — but excluded customer support (NT$150) and payment processing (NT$50). True margin is NT$100. Must include ALL variable costs per unit.
  • “每位客户收入为新台币500元，每位客户成本为新台币200元，因此我们每客户盈利新台币300元”——但忽略了客户支持成本（新台币150元）和支付处理费（新台币50元）。实际边际贡献为新台币100元。必须包含所有与单元相关的可变成本。

Gotchas

注意事项

  • "We'll achieve economies of scale": Maybe. Identify WHICH costs decrease with scale and by how much. Delivery driver pay may not decrease. Server costs for SaaS typically do.
  • Contribution margin ≠ profit: CM covers variable costs only. You still need enough total CM to cover fixed costs (see Break-Even Analysis).
  • Blended vs cohort: Blended unit economics across all customers hides that early customers (organic) may be profitable while recent customers (paid acquisition) are not.
  • Negative unit economics can be strategic: Temporarily, in land-grab markets with network effects (ride-sharing, marketplaces). But the path to positive must be explicit.
  • “我们将实现规模经济”：也许可行。需要明确哪些成本会随规模下降，以及下降幅度。外卖司机薪资可能不会下降，而SaaS的服务器成本通常会下降。
  • 边际贡献 ≠ 利润：边际贡献仅覆盖可变成本。仍需足够的总边际贡献来覆盖固定成本（详见盈亏平衡分析）。
  • 混合数据 vs 同期群组数据：所有客户的混合单位经济效益会掩盖一个事实：早期（自然增长）客户可能盈利，而近期（付费获客）客户可能亏损。
  • 负向单位经济效益可能具有战略性：在具有网络效应的市场（如网约车、平台类业务）中，短期内可采用此策略以抢占市场。但必须明确通往正向单位经济效益的路径。

Scripts

脚本

ScriptDescriptionUsage
scripts/unit_economics.py
Compute SaaS unit economics (NRR, GRR, LTV, CAC payback, magic number, burn multiple)
python scripts/unit_economics.py --help
Run 
python scripts/unit_economics.py --verify
to execute built-in sanity tests.
脚本描述使用方式
scripts/unit_economics.py
计算SaaS单位经济效益（NRR、GRR、LTV、CAC回收期、魔法数字、消耗倍数）
python scripts/unit_economics.py --help
运行
python scripts/unit_economics.py --verify
可执行内置的合理性测试。

References

参考资料

  • For CAC-LTV deep dive, see the biz-cac-ltv skill
  • For break-even analysis, see the biz-breakeven skill
  • 如需深入了解CAC-LTV，可查看biz-cac-ltv技能
  • 如需盈亏平衡分析，可查看biz-breakeven技能