forecast
Compare original and translation side by side
🇺🇸
Original
English🇨🇳
Translation
Chinese/forecast
/forecast
If you see unfamiliar placeholders or need to check which tools are connected, see CONNECTORS.md.
Generate a weighted sales forecast with risk analysis and commit recommendations.
如果您看到不熟悉的占位符或需要查看已连接的工具，请参阅CONNECTORS.md。
生成包含风险分析和承诺业绩建议的加权销售预测。
Usage
使用方法
/forecast [period]Generate a forecast for: $ARGUMENTS
If a file is referenced: @$1
/forecast [period]生成指定周期的预测：$ARGUMENTS
如果引用了文件：@$1
How It Works
工作原理
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FORECAST │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ STANDALONE (always works) │
│ ✓ Upload CSV export from your CRM │
│ ✓ Or paste/describe your pipeline deals │
│ ✓ Set your quota and timeline │
│ ✓ Get weighted forecast with stage probabilities │
│ ✓ Risk-adjusted projections (best/likely/worst case) │
│ ✓ Commit vs. upside breakdown │
│ ✓ Gap analysis and recommendations │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ SUPERCHARGED (when you connect your tools) │
│ + CRM: Pull pipeline automatically, real-time data │
│ + Historical win rates by stage, segment, deal size │
│ + Activity signals for risk scoring │
│ + Automatic refresh and tracking over time │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 销售预测 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 独立模式（始终可用） │
│ ✓ 上传从CRM导出的CSV文件 │
│ ✓ 或粘贴/描述您的销售机会 │
│ ✓ 设置您的目标额度和时间周期 │
│ ✓ 获取包含阶段概率的加权销售预测 │
│ ✓ 经风险调整的预测（最佳/最可能/最差情况） │
│ ✓ 已承诺与潜在业绩拆分 │
│ ✓ 差距分析及建议 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 增强模式（连接工具后可用） │
│ + CRM：自动拉取销售机会，获取实时数据 │
│ + 按阶段、细分领域、交易规模统计的历史赢单率 │
│ + 用于风险评分的活动信号 │
│ + 自动刷新及长期跟踪 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘What I Need From You
我需要您提供的信息
Step 1: Your Pipeline Data
第一步：您的销售机会数据
Option A: Upload a CSV
Export your pipeline from your CRM (e.g. Salesforce, HubSpot). I need at minimum:
- Deal/Opportunity name
- Amount
- Stage
- Close date
Helpful if you have:
- Owner (if team forecast)
- Last activity date
- Created date
- Account name
Option B: Paste your deals
Acme Corp - $50K - Negotiation - closes Jan 31
TechStart - $25K - Demo scheduled - closes Feb 15
BigCo - $100K - Discovery - closes Mar 30Option C: Describe your territory
"I have 8 deals in pipeline totaling $400K. Two are in negotiation ($120K), three in evaluation ($180K), three in discovery ($100K)."
选项A：上传CSV文件
从您的CRM（如Salesforce、HubSpot）导出销售机会数据。至少需要包含以下字段：
- 交易/机会名称
- 金额
- 阶段
- 预计关闭日期
如果有以下信息会更有帮助：
- 负责人（如果是团队预测）
- 最后活动日期
- 创建日期
- 客户名称
选项B：粘贴您的交易信息
Acme Corp - $50K - Negotiation - closes Jan 31
TechStart - $25K - Demo scheduled - closes Feb 15
BigCo - $100K - Discovery - closes Mar 30选项C：描述您的业务区域情况
"我有8个销售机会，总金额40万美元。其中2个处于谈判阶段（12万美元），3个处于评估阶段（18万美元），3个处于发现阶段（10万美元）。"
Step 2: Your Targets
第二步：您的目标
- Quota: What's your number? (e.g., "$500K this quarter")
- Timeline: When does the period end? (e.g., "Q1 ends March 31")
- Already closed: How much have you already booked this period?
- 目标额度：您的业绩目标是多少？（例如：“本季度50万美元”）
- 时间周期：该周期何时结束？（例如：“第一季度截止到3月31日”）
- 已完成业绩：本周期内您已经完成了多少业绩？
Output
输出结果
markdown
undefinedmarkdown
undefinedSales Forecast: [Period]
销售预测：[周期]
Generated: [Date]
Data Source: [CSV upload / Manual input / CRM]
生成时间： [日期]
数据来源： [CSV上传 / 手动输入 / CRM]
Summary
摘要
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Quota | $[X] |
| Closed to Date | $[X] ([X]% of quota) |
| Open Pipeline | $[X] |
| Weighted Forecast | $[X] |
| Gap to Quota | $[X] |
| Coverage Ratio | [X]x |
| 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|
| 目标额度 | $[X] |
| 已完成业绩 | $[X] (占目标的[X]%) |
| 未结销售机会 | $[X] |
| 加权预测值 | $[X] |
| 目标完成差距 | $[X] |
| 覆盖倍数 | [X]倍 |
Forecast Scenarios
预测场景
| Scenario | Amount | % of Quota | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Case | $[X] | [X]% | All deals close as expected |
| Likely Case | $[X] | [X]% | Stage-weighted probabilities |
| Worst Case | $[X] | [X]% | Only commit deals close |
| 场景 | 金额 | 目标完成占比 | 假设条件 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 最佳情况 | $[X] | [X]% | 所有交易均按预期完成 |
| 最可能情况 | $[X] | [X]% | 基于阶段加权概率计算 |
| 最差情况 | $[X] | [X]% | 仅已承诺业绩完成 |
Pipeline by Stage
按阶段划分的销售机会
| Stage | # Deals | Total Value | Probability | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiation | [X] | $[X] | 80% | $[X] |
| Proposal | [X] | $[X] | 60% | $[X] |
| Evaluation | [X] | $[X] | 40% | $[X] |
| Discovery | [X] | $[X] | 20% | $[X] |
| Total | [X] | $[X] | — | $[X] |
| 阶段 | 交易数量 | 总金额 | 概率 | 加权金额 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 谈判阶段 | [X] | $[X] | 80% | $[X] |
| 提案阶段 | [X] | $[X] | 60% | $[X] |
| 评估阶段 | [X] | $[X] | 40% | $[X] |
| 发现阶段 | [X] | $[X] | 20% | $[X] |
| 总计 | [X] | $[X] | — | $[X] |
Commit vs. Upside
已承诺业绩 vs 潜在业绩
Commit (High Confidence)
已承诺业绩（高置信度）
Deals you'd stake your forecast on:
| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Why Commit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Reason] |
Total Commit: $[X]
您可纳入预测的交易：
| 交易 | 金额 | 阶段 | 预计关闭日期 | 纳入承诺理由 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [交易名称] | $[X] | [阶段] | [日期] | [理由] |
总承诺业绩： $[X]
Upside (Lower Confidence)
潜在业绩（低置信度）
Deals that could close but have risk:
| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Risk] |
Total Upside: $[X]
有可能完成但存在风险的交易：
| 交易 | 金额 | 阶段 | 预计关闭日期 | 风险因素 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [交易名称] | $[X] | [阶段] | [日期] | [风险点] |
总潜在业绩： $[X]
Risk Flags
风险标记
| Deal | Amount | Risk | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date passed | Update close date or move to lost |
| [Deal] | $[X] | No activity in 14+ days | Re-engage or downgrade stage |
| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date this week, still in discovery | Unlikely to close — push out |
| 交易 | 金额 | 风险点 | 建议 |
|---|---|---|---|
| [交易名称] | $[X] | 预计关闭日期已过期 | 更新预计关闭日期或标记为已丢失 |
| [交易名称] | $[X] | 14天以上无活动 | 重新联系客户或下调阶段 |
| [交易名称] | $[X] | 本周截止但仍处于发现阶段 | 完成可能性低 — 延后预计关闭日期 |
Gap Analysis
差距分析
To hit quota, you need: $[X] more
Options to close the gap:
- Accelerate [Deal] — Currently [stage], worth $[X]. If you can close by [date], you're at [X]% of quota.
- Revive [Stalled Deal] — Last active [date]. Worth $[X]. Reach out to [contact].
- New pipeline needed — You need $[X] in new opportunities at [X]x coverage to be safe.
要达成目标，您还需完成： 额外$[X]业绩
缩小差距的方案：
- 加速[交易名称]推进 — 当前处于[阶段]，金额$[X]。如果能在[日期]前完成，您将达成目标的[X]%。
- 激活[停滞交易] — 最后活动日期为[日期]，金额$[X]。联系[联系人]。
- 需新增销售机会 — 您需要新增$[X]的潜在机会，达到[X]倍覆盖才较为安全。
Recommendations
行动建议
- [Specific action for highest-impact deal]
- [Action for at-risk deal]
- [Pipeline generation recommendation if gap exists]
---- [对高影响交易的具体行动]
- [对高风险交易的行动]
- [若存在差距，关于新增销售机会的建议]
---Stage Probabilities (Default)
默认阶段概率
If you don't provide custom probabilities, I'll use:
| Stage | Default Probability |
|---|---|
| Closed Won | 100% |
| Negotiation / Contract | 80% |
| Proposal / Quote | 60% |
| Evaluation / Demo | 40% |
| Discovery / Qualification | 20% |
| Prospecting / Lead | 10% |
Tell me if your stages or probabilities are different.
如果您未提供自定义概率，我将使用以下默认值：
| 阶段 | 默认概率 |
|---|---|
| 已赢单 | 100% |
| 谈判/合同阶段 | 80% |
| 提案/报价阶段 | 60% |
| 评估/演示阶段 | 40% |
| 发现/资格审查阶段 | 20% |
| 开发/线索阶段 | 10% |
如果您的阶段划分或概率不同，请告知我。
If CRM Connected
已连接CRM时
- I'll pull your pipeline automatically
- Use your actual historical win rates
- Factor in activity recency for risk scoring
- Track forecast changes over time
- Compare to previous forecasts
- 自动拉取您的销售机会数据
- 使用您实际的历史赢单率
- 将活动时效性纳入风险评分
- 跟踪预测随时间的变化
- 与过往预测进行对比
Tips
小贴士
- Be honest about commit — Only commit deals you'd bet on. Upside is for everything else.
- Update close dates — Stale close dates kill forecast accuracy. Push out deals that won't close in time.
- Coverage matters — 3x pipeline coverage is healthy. Below 2x is risky.
- Activity = signal — Deals with no recent activity are at higher risk than stage suggests.
- 如实填报承诺业绩 — 仅将您有把握的交易纳入承诺业绩，其余均归为潜在业绩。
- 更新预计关闭日期 — 过期的预计关闭日期会严重影响预测准确性。将无法按时完成的交易延后预计关闭日期。
- 覆盖倍数很重要 — 3倍的销售机会覆盖是健康水平。低于2倍则存在风险。
- 活动=信号 — 近期无活动的交易，其风险比所处阶段显示的更高。