unit-economics
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ChineseUnit Economics Analysis
Unit Economics分析
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Identify Business Model
步骤1：确定业务模式
Determine the revenue model to tailor the analysis:
- SaaS / Subscription: ARR, net retention, cohorts
- Recurring services: Contract value, renewal rates, upsell
- Transaction / usage-based: Revenue per transaction, volume trends, take rate
- Hybrid: Break down by revenue stream
根据收入模式调整分析方向：
- SaaS / 订阅制：ARR、net retention、cohorts
- 经常性服务：合同价值、续约率、追加销售
- 交易/基于使用量：每笔交易收入、交易量趋势、抽成率
- 混合模式：按收入细分拆解
Step 2: Core Metrics
步骤2：核心指标
ARR / Revenue Quality
ARR / 收入质量
- ARR bridge: Beginning ARR → New → Expansion → Contraction → Churn → Ending ARR
- ARR by cohort: Vintage analysis — how does each annual cohort retain and grow?
- Revenue concentration: Top 10/20/50 customers as % of total
- Revenue by type: Recurring vs. non-recurring vs. professional services
- Contract structure: ACV distribution, multi-year %, auto-renewal %
- ARR bridge：期初ARR → 新增 → 扩张 → 收缩 → 流失 → 期末ARR
- ARR by cohort：世代分析（Vintage analysis）——各年度cohort的留存与增长情况如何？
- 收入集中度：前10/20/50大客户收入占总收入的百分比
- 收入类型：经常性收入vs.非经常性收入vs.专业服务收入
- 合同结构：ACV分布、多年期合同占比、自动续约占比
Customer Economics
客户经济指标
- CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost): Total S&M spend / new customers acquired
- LTV (Lifetime Value): (ARPU × Gross Margin) / Churn Rate
- LTV:CAC ratio: Target >3x for healthy businesses
- CAC payback period: Months to recover acquisition cost
- Blended vs. segmented: Break down by customer segment (enterprise vs. SMB vs. mid-market)
- CAC（客户获取成本）：总销售与营销费用 ÷ 新增客户数量
- LTV（客户生命周期价值）：(ARPU × 毛利率) ÷ 流失率
- LTV:CAC比率：健康企业目标值＞3倍
- CAC回收期：收回获客成本所需的月数
- 混合vs.细分：按客户细分拆解（企业客户vs. SMB vs.中型市场客户）
Retention & Expansion
留存与扩张
- Gross retention: % of beginning ARR retained (excludes expansion)
- Net retention (NDR): % of beginning ARR retained including expansion
- Logo churn: % of customers lost
- Dollar churn: % of revenue lost (often different from logo churn)
- Expansion rate: Upsell + cross-sell as % of beginning ARR
- 总留存率：期初ARR的留存百分比（不含扩张收入）
- 净留存率（NDR）：包含扩张收入的期初ARR留存百分比
- 客户流失率（Logo churn）：流失客户占比
- 收入流失率（Dollar churn）：流失收入占比（通常与客户流失率不同）
- 扩张率：追加销售+交叉销售占期初ARR的百分比
Cohort Analysis
Cohort Analysis
Build a cohort matrix showing:
| Cohort | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.1M | |
| 2021 | $1.5M | $1.7M | $1.8M | ||
| 2022 | $2.0M | $2.3M | |||
| 2023 | $3.0M |
Show both absolute $ and indexed (Year 0 = 100%) views.
构建cohort矩阵展示：
| Cohort | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.1M | |
| 2021 | $1.5M | $1.7M | $1.8M | ||
| 2022 | $2.0M | $2.3M | |||
| 2023 | $3.0M |
同时展示绝对金额和指数化（Year 0=100%）两种视图。
Margin Waterfall
利润瀑布分析
- Revenue → Gross Profit → Contribution Margin → EBITDA
- Fully loaded unit economics: what does it cost to acquire, serve, and retain a customer?
- Gross margin by revenue stream (subscription vs. services vs. other)
- 收入 → 毛利润 → 贡献毛利 → EBITDA
- 全成本单位经济：获取、服务及留存客户的总成本是多少？
- 各收入流的毛利率（订阅vs.服务vs.其他）
Step 3: Benchmarking
步骤3：基准对比
Compare unit economics to relevant benchmarks:
- SaaS Rule of 40: Growth rate + EBITDA margin > 40%
- SaaS Magic Number: Net new ARR / prior period S&M spend > 0.75x
- NDR benchmarks: Best-in-class >120%, good >110%, concerning <100%
- LTV:CAC: Best-in-class >5x, good >3x, concerning <2x
- Gross retention: Best-in-class >95%, good >90%, concerning <85%
- CAC payback: Best-in-class <12mo, good <18mo, concerning >24mo
将单位经济指标与相关基准对比：
- SaaS 40法则：增长率 + EBITDA利润率＞40%
- SaaS魔法数字：新增净ARR ÷ 上期销售与营销费用＞0.75倍
- NDR基准：顶级水平＞120%，良好＞110%，堪忧＜100%
- LTV:CAC：顶级水平＞5倍，良好＞3倍，堪忧＜2倍
- 总留存率：顶级水平＞95%，良好＞90%，堪忧＜85%
- CAC回收期：顶级水平＜12个月，良好＜18个月，堪忧＞24个月
Step 4: Revenue Quality Score
步骤4：收入质量评分
Synthesize into a revenue quality assessment:
| Factor | Score (1-5) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Recurring % | ||
| Net retention | ||
| Customer concentration | ||
| Cohort stability | ||
| Growth durability | ||
| Margin profile | ||
| Overall |
综合评估收入质量：
| 因素 | 评分（1-5） | 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| 经常性收入占比 | ||
| 净留存率 | ||
| 客户集中度 | ||
| Cohort稳定性 | ||
| 增长可持续性 | ||
| 利润结构 | ||
| 整体评分 |
Step 5: Output
步骤5：输出成果
- Excel workbook with ARR bridge, cohort matrix, unit economics dashboard
- Summary slide with key metrics and benchmarks
- Red flags and areas for further diligence
- 包含ARR bridge、cohort矩阵、单位经济仪表盘的Excel工作簿
- 含关键指标与基准对比的总结幻灯片
- 风险警示及需进一步核查的领域
Important Notes
重要提示
- Always ask for raw customer-level data if available — aggregate metrics can hide problems
- NDR above 100% can mask high gross churn if expansion is strong enough — always show both
- Cohort analysis is the single most important view for revenue quality — push for this data
- Differentiate between contracted ARR and actual recognized revenue
- For usage-based models, focus on consumption trends and expansion patterns rather than traditional ARR metrics
- Professional services revenue should be evaluated separately — it's not recurring and margins are typically lower
- 若有可用的客户级原始数据，务必获取——汇总指标可能掩盖问题
- 若扩张收入强劲，NDR高于100%可能掩盖高总流失率——务必同时展示两者
- Cohort analysis是评估收入质量最重要的视角——务必获取相关数据
- 区分合同ARR与实际确认收入
- 对于基于使用量的模式，重点关注消费趋势与扩张模式，而非传统ARR指标
- 专业服务收入需单独评估——它不属于经常性收入，且利润率通常较低