thesis-tracker
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ChineseThesis Tracker
投资论点跟踪器
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Define or Load Thesis
步骤1：定义或加载论点
If creating a new thesis:
- Company: Name and ticker
- Position: Long or Short
- Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
- Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
- Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
- Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
- Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
- Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit
If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.
如果创建新论点：
- 公司：名称及股票代码
- 持仓方向：做多或做空
- 论点陈述：1-2句话的核心论点（例如：“做多ACME——随着业务结构向软件转型，定价权带来的利润率提升+运营杠杆效应”）
- 核心支柱：3-5个支撑论据
- 关键风险：3-5个可能推翻论点的风险
- 催化剂事件：可能验证/推翻论点的即将发生的事件（财报发布、产品上市、监管决策）
- 目标价格/估值：论点成立时的合理价值
- 止损触发条件：导致你平仓的触发因素
如果更新现有论点，向用户询问新增数据点或最新动态。
Step 2: Update Log
步骤2：更新日志
For each new data point or development:
- Date: When this happened
- Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
- Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
- Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
- Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low
对于每个新增数据点或最新动态：
- 日期：事件发生时间
- 数据点：发生的变化（财报超预期、管理层变动、竞争对手动作等）
- 论点影响：是否强化、弱化或不影响某个核心支柱？
- 行动建议：无变动/加仓/减仓/平仓
- 更新后的信心水平：高/中/低
Step 3: Thesis Scorecard
步骤3：论点记分卡
Maintain a running scorecard:
| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |
| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |
| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |
维护动态更新的记分卡：
| 核心支柱 | 初始预期 | 当前状态 | 趋势 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长>20% | 符合预期 | 第三季度为22% | 稳定 |
| 利润率提升 | 未达预期 | 利润率同比持平 | 需关注 |
| 新产品上市 | 待启动 | 推迟至第二季度 | 密切关注 |
Step 4: Catalyst Calendar
步骤4：催化剂事件日历
Track upcoming catalysts:
| Date | Event | Expected Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
跟踪即将发生的催化剂事件：
| 日期 | 事件 | 预期影响 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|
Step 5: Output
步骤5：输出结果
Thesis summary suitable for:
- Morning meeting discussion
- Portfolio review
- Risk committee presentation
Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.
适合以下场景的论点摘要：
- 晨会讨论
- 投资组合审查
- 风险委员会汇报
格式：包含记分卡、最新更新及当前信心水平的简洁Markdown或Word文档。
Important Notes
重要提示
- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
- If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
- Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions
- 论点必须可证伪——如果没有任何情况能推翻它，那就不是一个合格的论点
- 严格跟踪反面证据，与正面证据一视同仁
- 即使没有重大事件，也至少每季度审查一次论点
- 如果用户管理多个持仓，主动提供全面的投资组合论点审查服务
- 以结构化格式存储论点数据，以便跨会话引用