returns-analysis
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ChineseReturns Analysis
回报分析
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs
步骤1：收集交易输入数据
Ask for (or extract from prior analysis):
Entry:
- Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)
- Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)
- Enterprise value
- Net debt at close
- Equity check size
- Transaction fees & expenses
Financing:
- Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)
- Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)
- Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)
- Equity contribution
Operating Assumptions:
- Revenue growth rate (annual)
- EBITDA margin trajectory
- Capex as % of revenue
- Working capital changes
- Debt paydown schedule
Exit:
- Hold period (years)
- Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)
- Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)
询问（或从过往分析中提取）以下信息：
进入环节：
- 进入时EBITDA（LTM：过去12个月 / NTM：未来12个月）
- 进入估值倍数（EV / EBITDA）
- 企业价值（EV）
- 交割时净债务
- 股权投资金额
- 交易费用及开支
融资环节：
- 优先债务（EBITDA倍数、利率、摊销方式）
- 次级债务/夹层债务（如有）
- 进入时总杠杆率（EBITDA倍数）
- 股权出资额
运营假设：
- 年收入增长率
- EBITDA利润率变化趋势
- 资本支出占收入比例
- 营运资金变动
- 债务偿还计划
退出环节：
- 持有期（年）
- 退出估值倍数（EV / EBITDA）
- 退出时EBITDA（由增长假设计算得出）
Step 2: Base Case Returns
步骤2：基准场景回报计算
Calculate:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry EV | |
| Equity invested | |
| Exit EBITDA | |
| Exit EV | |
| Net debt at exit | |
| Exit equity value | |
| MOIC | |
| IRR | |
| Cash-on-cash |
Show the returns waterfall:
- EBITDA growth contribution
- Multiple expansion/contraction contribution
- Debt paydown contribution
- Fee/expense drag
计算以下指标：
| 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|
| 进入时企业价值 | |
| 股权投资金额 | |
| 退出时EBITDA | |
| 退出时企业价值 | |
| 退出时净债务 | |
| 退出时股权价值 | |
| MOIC | |
| IRR | |
| 现金回报率 |
展示回报拆分：
- EBITDA增长贡献
- 估值倍数扩张/收缩贡献
- 债务偿还贡献
- 费用/开支拖累
Step 3: Sensitivity Tables
步骤3：敏感性表格
Build 2-way sensitivity matrices:
Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple
| Exit 6x | Exit 7x | Exit 8x | Exit 9x | Exit 10x | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry 7x | |||||
| Entry 8x | |||||
| Entry 9x | |||||
| Entry 10x |
EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry)
Leverage vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry and growth)
Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple
Show both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).
构建双向敏感性矩阵：
进入估值倍数 vs 退出估值倍数
| 退出6倍 | 退出7倍 | 退出8倍 | 退出9倍 | 退出10倍 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 进入7倍 | |||||
| 进入8倍 | |||||
| 进入9倍 | |||||
| 进入10倍 |
EBITDA增长率 vs 退出估值倍数（固定进入条件）
杠杆率 vs 退出估值倍数（固定进入条件及增长假设）
持有期 vs 退出估值倍数
每个单元格同时展示IRR和MOIC（格式：IRR / MOIC）。
Step 4: Scenario Analysis
步骤4：场景分析
Build 3 scenarios:
| Bull | Base | Bear | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | |||
| Exit EBITDA margin | |||
| Exit multiple | |||
| Exit EBITDA | |||
| MOIC | |||
| IRR |
构建3种场景：
| 乐观场景 | 基准场景 | 悲观场景 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 收入复合增长率 | |||
| 退出时EBITDA利润率 | |||
| 退出估值倍数 | |||
| 退出时EBITDA | |||
| MOIC | |||
| IRR |
Step 5: Output
步骤5：输出成果
- Excel workbook with:
- Assumptions tab
- Returns calculation
- Sensitivity tables (formatted with conditional coloring)
- Scenario summary
- One-page returns summary suitable for IC deck
- Excel工作簿，包含：
- 假设参数页
- 回报计算页
- 敏感性表格（带条件格式着色）
- 场景汇总页
- 适用于投资委员会（IC）汇报的单页回报摘要
Key Formulas
核心公式
- MOIC = Exit Equity Value / Equity Invested
- IRR = solve for r: Equity Invested × (1 + r)^n = Exit Equity Value (adjust for interim cash flows)
- Returns attribution:
- Growth: (Exit EBITDA - Entry EBITDA) × Exit Multiple / Equity
- Multiple: (Exit Multiple - Entry Multiple) × Entry EBITDA / Equity
- Leverage: Debt paydown over hold period / Equity
- MOIC = 退出时股权价值 / 股权投资金额
- IRR = 求解r：股权投资金额 × (1 + r)^n = 退出时股权价值（需调整中期现金流）
- 回报归因:
- 增长贡献：(退出时EBITDA - 进入时EBITDA) × 退出估值倍数 / 股权金额
- 估值倍数贡献：(退出估值倍数 - 进入估值倍数) × 进入时EBITDA / 股权金额
- 杠杆贡献：持有期内债务偿还额 / 股权金额
Important Notes
重要提示
- Always show returns both gross and net of fees/carry where applicable
- Management rollover and co-invest change the equity check — ask if relevant
- Dividend recaps or interim distributions affect IRR significantly — include if planned
- Don't forget transaction costs (typically 2-4% of EV) — they reduce Day 1 equity value
- Tax considerations (asset vs. stock deal, 338(h)(10) election) can materially affect after-tax returns
- 适用情况下需同时展示扣除费用/提成前后的回报
- 管理层持股滚动（Management rollover）及联合投资（co-invest）会改变股权投资金额——若相关需询问
- 股息资本重组（Dividend recaps）或中期分红会显著影响IRR——如有计划需纳入考量
- 不要忘记交易成本（通常为EV的2-4%）——会降低首日股权价值
- 税务考量（资产收购vs股权收购、338(h)(10)选举）会对税后回报产生重大影响