merger-model
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ChineseMerger Model
并购模型（Merger Model）
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Gather Inputs
步骤1：收集输入数据
Acquirer:
- Company name, current share price, shares outstanding
- LTM and NTM EPS (GAAP and adjusted)
- P/E multiple
- Pre-tax cost of debt, tax rate
- Cash on balance sheet, existing debt
Target:
- Company name, current share price, shares outstanding (if public)
- LTM and NTM EPS or net income
- Enterprise value or equity value
Deal Terms:
- Offer price per share (or premium to current)
- Consideration mix: % cash vs. % stock
- New debt raised to fund cash portion
- Expected synergies (revenue and cost) and phase-in timeline
- Transaction fees and financing costs
- Expected close date
收购方：
- 公司名称、当前股价、已发行股份数
- LTM和NTM EPS（GAAP及调整后）
- P/E倍数
- 税前债务成本、税率
- 资产负债表现金余额、现有债务
目标公司：
- 公司名称、当前股价、已发行股份数（若为上市公司）
- LTM和NTM EPS或净利润
- 企业价值或股权价值
交易条款：
- 每股报价（或相对于当前股价的溢价）
- 对价结构：现金占比 vs. 股份占比
- 为现金部分融资新增的债务
- 预期协同效应（收入及成本）及分阶段落地时间表
- 交易费用及融资成本
- 预期交割日期
Step 2: Purchase Price Analysis
步骤2：购买价格分析
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Offer price per share | |
| Premium to current | |
| Equity value | |
| Plus: net debt assumed | |
| Enterprise value | |
| EV / EBITDA implied | |
| P/E implied |
| 项目 | 数值 |
|---|---|
| 每股报价 | |
| 相对于当前股价的溢价 | |
| 股权价值 | |
| 加：承担的净债务 | |
| 企业价值 | |
| 隐含EV / EBITDA | |
| 隐含P/E |
Step 3: Sources & Uses
步骤3：资金来源与用途
| Sources | $ | Uses | $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| New debt | Equity purchase price | ||
| Cash on hand | Refinance target debt | ||
| New equity issued | Transaction fees | ||
| Financing fees | |||
| Total | Total |
| 资金来源 | 金额($) | 资金用途 | 金额($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 新增债务 | 股权收购价款 | ||
| 现有现金 | 再融资目标公司债务 | ||
| 新增发行股份 | 交易费用 | ||
| 融资费用 | |||
| 总计 | 总计 |
Step 4: Pro Forma EPS (Accretion / Dilution)
步骤4：备考EPS（摊薄/增厚）
Calculate year-by-year (Year 1-3):
| Standalone | Pro Forma | Accretion/(Dilution) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer net income | |||
| Target net income | |||
| Synergies (after tax) | |||
| Foregone interest on cash (after tax) | |||
| New debt interest (after tax) | |||
| Intangible amortization (after tax) | |||
| Pro forma net income | |||
| Pro forma shares | |||
| Pro forma EPS | |||
| Accretion / (Dilution) % |
逐年计算（第1-3年）：
| 独立报表 | 合并报表 | 摊薄/增厚 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 收购方净利润 | |||
| 目标公司净利润 | |||
| 税后协同效应 | |||
| 现金使用的税后利息损失 | |||
| 新增债务的税后利息支出 | |||
| 无形资产摊销（税后） | |||
| 合并报表净利润 | |||
| 合并报表股份数 | |||
| 合并报表EPS | |||
| 摊薄/增厚百分比 |
Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis
步骤5：敏感性分析
Accretion/Dilution vs. Synergies and Offer Premium:
| $0M syn | $25M syn | $50M syn | $75M syn | $100M syn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% premium | |||||
| 20% premium | |||||
| 25% premium | |||||
| 30% premium |
Accretion/Dilution vs. Cash/Stock Mix:
| 100% cash | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100% stock | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | |||||
| Year 2 |
摊薄/增厚 vs. 协同效应与报价溢价：
| 0美元协同 | 2500万美元协同 | 5000万美元协同 | 7500万美元协同 | 1亿美元协同 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15%溢价 | |||||
| 20%溢价 | |||||
| 25%溢价 | |||||
| 30%溢价 |
摊薄/增厚 vs. 现金/股份结构：
| 100%现金 | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100%股份 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 第1年 | |||||
| 第2年 |
Step 6: Breakeven Synergies
步骤6：盈亏平衡协同效应
Calculate the minimum synergies needed for the deal to be EPS-neutral in Year 1.
计算交易在第1年实现EPS中性所需的最低协同效应。
Step 7: Output
步骤7：输出成果
- Excel workbook with:
- Assumptions tab
- Sources & uses
- Pro forma income statement
- Accretion/dilution summary
- Sensitivity tables
- Breakeven analysis
- One-page merger consequences summary for pitch book
- Excel工作簿，包含：
- 假设条件标签页
- 资金来源与用途表
- 合并利润表
- 摊薄/增厚汇总表
- 敏感性分析表
- 盈亏平衡分析表
- 用于推介材料的单页并购后果摘要
Important Notes
重要提示
- Always show both GAAP and adjusted (cash) EPS where relevant
- Stock deals: use acquirer's current price for exchange ratio, note dilution from new shares
- Include purchase price allocation — goodwill and intangible amortization matter for GAAP EPS
- Synergy phase-in is critical — Year 1 is often only 25-50% of run-rate synergies
- Don't forget foregone interest income on cash used and new interest expense on debt raised
- Tax rate on synergies and interest adjustments should match the acquirer's marginal rate
- 相关场景下需同时展示GAAP及调整后（现金）EPS
- 股份交易：使用收购方当前股价计算换股比例，标注新增股份带来的摊薄影响
- 需包含购买价格分配——商誉及无形资产摊销对GAAP EPS至关重要
- 协同效应分阶段落地非常关键——第1年通常仅能实现稳定状态协同效应的25%-50%
- 切勿忽略现金使用的利息损失及新增债务的利息支出
- 协同效应及利息调整的税率应与收购方的边际税率一致