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Manifold Markets Trading Skill

Manifold Markets 交易技能

Real, working methods to bet on Manifold Markets using Mana (play money that can be donated to charity).

使用Mana（可捐赠给慈善机构的虚拟货币）在Manifold Markets进行投注的实用方法。

Setup

准备工作

Get your API key from: https://manifold.markets/profile (API key section)

python

import os
import requests

API_URL = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
API_KEY = os.getenv("MANIFOLD_API_KEY")

def headers():
    return {
        "Authorization": f"Key {API_KEY}",
        "Content-Type": "application/json"
    }

从以下地址获取你的API密钥：https://manifold.markets/profile（API密钥板块）

python

import os
import requests

API_URL = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
API_KEY = os.getenv("MANIFOLD_API_KEY")

def headers():
    return {
        "Authorization": f"Key {API_KEY}",
        "Content-Type": "application/json"
    }

Search Markets

搜索市场

python

def search_markets(query: str, limit: int = 10):
    """Search for markets"""
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/search-markets", params={
        "term": query,
        "limit": limit,
        "filter": "open",
        "sort": "liquidity"
    })
    r.raise_for_status()
    markets = r.json()

    for m in markets[:5]:
        prob = m.get("probability", 0.5)
        print(f"\nMarket: {m['question']}")
        print(f"ID: {m['id']}")
        print(f"Probability: {prob*100:.1f}%")
        print(f"URL: {m.get('url', '')}")

    return markets

markets = search_markets("AI")

python

def search_markets(query: str, limit: int = 10):
    """Search for markets"""
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/search-markets", params={
        "term": query,
        "limit": limit,
        "filter": "open",
        "sort": "liquidity"
    })
    r.raise_for_status()
    markets = r.json()

    for m in markets[:5]:
        prob = m.get("probability", 0.5)
        print(f"\nMarket: {m['question']}")
        print(f"ID: {m['id']}")
        print(f"Probability: {prob*100:.1f}%")
        print(f"URL: {m.get('url', '')}")

    return markets

markets = search_markets("AI")

Get Market by ID or Slug

通过ID或别名获取市场详情

python

def get_market(id_or_slug: str):
    """Get market details"""
    # Try by ID first
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/market/{id_or_slug}")
    if r.status_code == 404:
        # Try by slug
        r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/slug/{id_or_slug}")

    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

market = get_market("will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025")
print(f"Question: {market['question']}")
print(f"Probability: {market.get('probability', 0.5)*100:.1f}%")

python

def get_market(id_or_slug: str):
    """Get market details"""
    # Try by ID first
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/market/{id_or_slug}")
    if r.status_code == 404:
        # Try by slug
        r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/slug/{id_or_slug}")

    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

market = get_market("will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025")
print(f"Question: {market['question']}")
print(f"Probability: {market.get('probability', 0.5)*100:.1f}%")

Place a Bet

进行投注

python

def place_bet(
    market_id: str,
    amount: int,           # Mana amount to bet
    outcome: str = "YES",  # "YES" or "NO"
    limit_prob: float = None  # Optional limit order probability
):
    """
    Place a bet on Manifold

    Args:
        market_id: The market ID (not slug!)
        amount: Amount of Mana to bet
        outcome: "YES" or "NO"
        limit_prob: Optional - if set, creates a limit order at this probability
    """
    payload = {
        "contractId": market_id,
        "amount": amount,
        "outcome": outcome
    }

    if limit_prob is not None:
        payload["limitProb"] = limit_prob

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    result = r.json()

    print(f"Bet placed!")
    print(f"Shares: {result.get('shares', 0):.2f}")
    print(f"Probability after: {result.get('probAfter', 0)*100:.1f}%")

    return result

python

def place_bet(
    market_id: str,
    amount: int,           # Mana amount to bet
    outcome: str = "YES",  # "YES" or "NO"
    limit_prob: float = None  # Optional limit order probability
):
    """
    Place a bet on Manifold

    Args:
        market_id: The market ID (not slug!)
        amount: Amount of Mana to bet
        outcome: "YES" or "NO"
        limit_prob: Optional - if set, creates a limit order at this probability
    """
    payload = {
        "contractId": market_id,
        "amount": amount,
        "outcome": outcome
    }

    if limit_prob is not None:
        payload["limitProb"] = limit_prob

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    result = r.json()

    print(f"Bet placed!")
    print(f"Shares: {result.get('shares', 0):.2f}")
    print(f"Probability after: {result.get('probAfter', 0)*100:.1f}%")

    return result

Market bet - buys at current price

result = place_bet( market_id="abc123", amount=100, # 100 Mana outcome="YES" )

Limit order - only fills at 40% or below

result = place_bet( market_id="abc123", amount=100, outcome="YES", limit_prob=0.40 )

undefined

result = place_bet( market_id="abc123", amount=100, outcome="YES", limit_prob=0.40 )

undefined

Cancel Bet (Limit Orders Only)

取消投注（仅限价订单）

python

def cancel_bet(bet_id: str):
    """Cancel a limit order"""
    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet/cancel/{bet_id}", headers=headers())
    r.raise_for_status()
    return True

cancel_bet("bet123")

python

def cancel_bet(bet_id: str):
    """Cancel a limit order"""
    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet/cancel/{bet_id}", headers=headers())
    r.raise_for_status()
    return True

cancel_bet("bet123")

Sell Shares

卖出份额

python

def sell_shares(
    market_id: str,
    outcome: str = "YES",
    shares: float = None  # None = sell all
):
    """
    Sell shares in a market

    Args:
        market_id: The market ID
        outcome: "YES" or "NO" - which shares to sell
        shares: Number of shares to sell (None = all)
    """
    payload = {
        "contractId": market_id,
        "outcome": outcome
    }

    if shares is not None:
        payload["shares"] = shares

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/market/{market_id}/sell", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

python

def sell_shares(
    market_id: str,
    outcome: str = "YES",
    shares: float = None  # None = sell all
):
    """
    Sell shares in a market

    Args:
        market_id: The market ID
        outcome: "YES" or "NO" - which shares to sell
        shares: Number of shares to sell (None = all)
    """
    payload = {
        "contractId": market_id,
        "outcome": outcome
    }

    if shares is not None:
        payload["shares"] = shares

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/market/{market_id}/sell", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

Sell all YES shares

sell_shares("abc123", "YES")

Sell specific amount

sell_shares("abc123", "YES", shares=50.0)

undefined

sell_shares("abc123", "YES", shares=50.0)

undefined

Get Your Bets

获取我的投注记录

python

def get_my_bets(market_id: str = None):
    """Get your bets"""
    params = {}
    if market_id:
        params["contractId"] = market_id

    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/bets", headers=headers(), params=params)
    r.raise_for_status()
    bets = r.json()

    for b in bets[:10]:
        print(f"Bet: {b['outcome']} {b['amount']}M @ {b.get('probBefore', 0)*100:.0f}%")

    return bets

bets = get_my_bets()

python

def get_my_bets(market_id: str = None):
    """Get your bets"""
    params = {}
    if market_id:
        params["contractId"] = market_id

    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/bets", headers=headers(), params=params)
    r.raise_for_status()
    bets = r.json()

    for b in bets[:10]:
        print(f"Bet: {b['outcome']} {b['amount']}M @ {b.get('probBefore', 0)*100:.0f}%")

    return bets

bets = get_my_bets()

Get Your Positions

获取我的持仓

python

def get_positions():
    """Get current positions across all markets"""
    # Get user info first
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=headers())
    r.raise_for_status()
    user = r.json()

    # Get bets to calculate positions
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/bets", headers=headers(), params={"limit": 1000})
    bets = r.json()

    # Aggregate by market
    positions = {}
    for bet in bets:
        mid = bet["contractId"]
        if mid not in positions:
            positions[mid] = {"yes": 0, "no": 0, "invested": 0}

        if bet["outcome"] == "YES":
            positions[mid]["yes"] += bet.get("shares", 0)
        else:
            positions[mid]["no"] += bet.get("shares", 0)

        if not bet.get("isSold", False):
            positions[mid]["invested"] += bet["amount"]

    return positions, user.get("balance", 0)

positions, balance = get_positions()
print(f"Balance: {balance} Mana")
for mid, pos in positions.items():
    if pos["yes"] > 0 or pos["no"] > 0:
        print(f"Market {mid}: YES={pos['yes']:.1f}, NO={pos['no']:.1f}")

python

def get_positions():
    """Get current positions across all markets"""
    # Get user info first
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=headers())
    r.raise_for_status()
    user = r.json()

    # Get bets to calculate positions
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/bets", headers=headers(), params={"limit": 1000})
    bets = r.json()

    # Aggregate by market
    positions = {}
    for bet in bets:
        mid = bet["contractId"]
        if mid not in positions:
            positions[mid] = {"yes": 0, "no": 0, "invested": 0}

        if bet["outcome"] == "YES":
            positions[mid]["yes"] += bet.get("shares", 0)
        else:
            positions[mid]["no"] += bet.get("shares", 0)

        if not bet.get("isSold", False):
            positions[mid]["invested"] += bet["amount"]

    return positions, user.get("balance", 0)

positions, balance = get_positions()
print(f"Balance: {balance} Mana")
for mid, pos in positions.items():
    if pos["yes"] > 0 or pos["no"] > 0:
        print(f"Market {mid}: YES={pos['yes']:.1f}, NO={pos['no']:.1f}")

Get Balance

获取账户余额

python

def get_balance():
    """Get your Mana balance"""
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=headers())
    r.raise_for_status()
    user = r.json()
    return user.get("balance", 0)

balance = get_balance()
print(f"Balance: {balance} Mana")

python

def get_balance():
    """Get your Mana balance"""
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=headers())
    r.raise_for_status()
    user = r.json()
    return user.get("balance", 0)

balance = get_balance()
print(f"Balance: {balance} Mana")

Complete Trading Bot Example

完整交易机器人示例

python

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Manifold arbitrage bot - finds mispriced markets
"""

import os
import time
import requests

API_URL = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
API_KEY = os.getenv("MANIFOLD_API_KEY")

def h():
    return {"Authorization": f"Key {API_KEY}", "Content-Type": "application/json"}

def search(query):
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/search-markets",
                    params={"term": query, "limit": 20, "filter": "open"})
    return r.json()

def bet(market_id, amount, outcome, limit_prob=None):
    payload = {"contractId": market_id, "amount": amount, "outcome": outcome}
    if limit_prob:
        payload["limitProb"] = limit_prob
    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=h(), json=payload)
    return r.json()

def get_balance():
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=h())
    return r.json().get("balance", 0)

python

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Manifold arbitrage bot - finds mispriced markets
"""

import os
import time
import requests

API_URL = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
API_KEY = os.getenv("MANIFOLD_API_KEY")

def h():
    return {"Authorization": f"Key {API_KEY}", "Content-Type": "application/json"}

def search(query):
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/search-markets",
                    params={"term": query, "limit": 20, "filter": "open"})
    return r.json()

def bet(market_id, amount, outcome, limit_prob=None):
    payload = {"contractId": market_id, "amount": amount, "outcome": outcome}
    if limit_prob:
        payload["limitProb"] = limit_prob
    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=h(), json=payload)
    return r.json()

def get_balance():
    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=h())
    return r.json().get("balance", 0)

Strategy: Buy extreme probabilities (likely to revert)

MIN_LIQUIDITY = 1000 # Only trade liquid markets

while True: try: balance = get_balance() print(f"\nBalance: {balance} Mana")

    # Search trending markets
    markets = search("2024")

    for m in markets:
        prob = m.get("probability", 0.5)
        liquidity = m.get("totalLiquidity", 0)

        if liquidity < MIN_LIQUIDITY:
            continue

        # Buy YES on very low probability (< 10%)
        if prob < 0.10:
            print(f"LOW: {m['question'][:50]} at {prob*100:.1f}%")
            if balance > 50:
                bet(m["id"], 50, "YES", limit_prob=0.15)

        # Buy NO on very high probability (> 90%)
        elif prob > 0.90:
            print(f"HIGH: {m['question'][:50]} at {prob*100:.1f}%")
            if balance > 50:
                bet(m["id"], 50, "NO", limit_prob=0.85)

    time.sleep(300)  # Check every 5 minutes

except Exception as e:
    print(f"Error: {e}")
    time.sleep(60)

undefined

MIN_LIQUIDITY = 1000 # Only trade liquid markets

while True: try: balance = get_balance() print(f"\nBalance: {balance} Mana")

    # Search trending markets
    markets = search("2024")

    for m in markets:
        prob = m.get("probability", 0.5)
        liquidity = m.get("totalLiquidity", 0)

        if liquidity < MIN_LIQUIDITY:
            continue

        # Buy YES on very low probability (< 10%)
        if prob < 0.10:
            print(f"LOW: {m['question'][:50]} at {prob*100:.1f}%")
            if balance > 50:
                bet(m["id"], 50, "YES", limit_prob=0.15)

        # Buy NO on very high probability (> 90%)
        elif prob > 0.90:
            print(f"HIGH: {m['question'][:50]} at {prob*100:.1f}%")
            if balance > 50:
                bet(m["id"], 50, "NO", limit_prob=0.85)

    time.sleep(300)  # Check every 5 minutes

except Exception as e:
    print(f"Error: {e}")
    time.sleep(60)

undefined

Multiple Choice Markets

多选题市场

python

def bet_multiple_choice(market_id: str, answer_id: str, amount: int):
    """Bet on a multiple choice market"""
    payload = {
        "contractId": market_id,
        "amount": amount,
        "answerId": answer_id
    }

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

python

def bet_multiple_choice(market_id: str, answer_id: str, amount: int):
    """Bet on a multiple choice market"""
    payload = {
        "contractId": market_id,
        "amount": amount,
        "answerId": answer_id
    }

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

Get market with answers

market = get_market("who-will-win-2024-election") for answer in market.get("answers", []): print(f"{answer['text']}: {answer['probability']*100:.1f}% (ID: {answer['id']})")

Bet on specific answer

bet_multiple_choice("market123", "answer456", 100)

undefined

bet_multiple_choice("market123", "answer456", 100)

undefined

Create a Market

创建市场

python

def create_market(
    question: str,
    description: str = "",
    close_time: int = None,  # Unix timestamp
    initial_prob: float = 0.5,
    ante: int = 100  # Initial liquidity
):
    """Create a new binary market"""
    payload = {
        "outcomeType": "BINARY",
        "question": question,
        "description": description,
        "initialProb": int(initial_prob * 100),
        "ante": ante
    }

    if close_time:
        payload["closeTime"] = close_time * 1000  # Milliseconds

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/market", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

python

def create_market(
    question: str,
    description: str = "",
    close_time: int = None,  # Unix timestamp
    initial_prob: float = 0.5,
    ante: int = 100  # Initial liquidity
):
    """Create a new binary market"""
    payload = {
        "outcomeType": "BINARY",
        "question": question,
        "description": description,
        "initialProb": int(initial_prob * 100),
        "ante": ante
    }

    if close_time:
        payload["closeTime"] = close_time * 1000  # Milliseconds

    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/market", headers=headers(), json=payload)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()

Create market

new_market = create_market( question="Will it rain tomorrow in NYC?", initial_prob=0.3, ante=100 ) print(f"Created: {new_market['url']}")

undefined

new_market = create_market( question="Will it rain tomorrow in NYC?", initial_prob=0.3, ante=100 ) print(f"Created: {new_market['url']}")

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Important Notes

重要说明

Mana is play money - Can be donated to charity
No limit on bets - Unlike real money markets
Market maker AMM - Prices move based on bets
Limit orders - Use
```
limitProb
```
for better prices
API rate limits - Be gentle, ~60 requests/minute
Shares ≠ Mana - Shares vary based on probability

Mana是虚拟货币 - 可捐赠给慈善机构
无投注限制 - 与真实货币市场不同
做市商自动做市机制（AMM） - 价格随投注变动
限价订单 - 使用
```
limitProb
```
获取更优价格
API调用频率限制 - 请适度调用，约60次/分钟
份额≠Mana - 份额随概率变化