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@staticmethod
def calculate_standard_deviation(optimistic, pessimistic):
    """Standard deviation for risk analysis"""
    sigma = (pessimistic - optimistic) / 6
    return round(sigma, 2)

@staticmethod
def calculate_confidence_interval(pert_estimate, std_dev, confidence=0.95):
    """
    Calculate confidence interval for estimate
    95% confidence ≈ ±2 sigma
    """
    z_score = 1.96 if confidence == 0.95 else 2.576
    margin = z_score * std_dev

    return {
        'estimate': pert_estimate,
        'lower_bound': round(pert_estimate - margin, 2),
        'upper_bound': round(pert_estimate + margin, 2),
        'range': f"{pert_estimate - margin:.1f} - {pert_estimate + margin:.1f}"
    }

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// Bottom-up estimation from detailed task breakdown

class BottomUpEstimation {
  constructor(project) {
    this.project = project;
    this.tasks = [];
    this.workBreakdownStructure = {};
  }

  createWBS() {
    // Work Breakdown Structure example
    return {
      level1: 'Full Project',
      level2: ['Planning', 'Design', 'Development', 'Testing', 'Deployment'],
      level3: {
        'Development': [
          'Backend API',
          'Frontend UI',
          'Database Schema',
          'Integration'
        ],
        'Testing': [
          'Unit Testing',
          'Integration Testing',
          'UAT',
          'Performance Testing'
        ]
      }
    };
  }

  estimateTasks(tasks) {
    let totalEstimate = 0;
    const estimates = [];

    for (let task of tasks) {
      const taskEstimate = this.estimateSingleTask(task);
      estimates.push({
        name: task.name,
        effort: taskEstimate.effort,
        resources: taskEstimate.resources,
        risk: taskEstimate.risk,
        duration: taskEstimate.duration
      });
      totalEstimate += taskEstimate.effort;
    }

    return {
      totalEffortHours: totalEstimate,
      totalWorkDays: totalEstimate / 8,
      taskDetails: estimates,
      criticalPath: this.identifyCriticalPath(estimates)
    };
  }

  estimateSingleTask(task) {
    // Base effort
    let effort = task.complexity * task.scope;

    // Adjust for team experience
    const experienceFactor = task.teamExperience / 100; // 0.5 to 1.5
    effort = effort * experienceFactor;

    // Adjust for risk
    const riskFactor = 1 + (task.riskLevel * 0.1);
    effort = effort * riskFactor;

    return {
      effort: Math.ceil(effort),
      resources: Math.ceil(effort / 8), // days
      risk: task.riskLevel,
      duration: Math.ceil(effort / (8 * task.teamSize))
    };
  }

  identifyCriticalPath(estimates) {
    // Return tasks with longest duration
    return estimates
      .sort((a, b) => b.duration - a.duration)
      .slice(0, 5);
  }
}

Analogous Estimation Template:

Historical Project Comparison:

Current Project:
  Type: E-commerce Payment System
  Complexity: High
  Scope: Medium
  Team Size: 5 developers

Similar Historical Projects:

Project A (2 years ago):
  Type: E-commerce Shipping System
  Complexity: High
  Scope: Medium
  Team Size: 5 developers
  Actual Duration: 16 weeks
  Actual Cost: $180,000
  Lessons: Underestimated integration work

Project B (1 year ago):
  Type: Payment Gateway Integration
  Complexity: High
  Scope: Small
  Team Size: 3 developers
  Actual Duration: 8 weeks
  Actual Cost: $95,000
  Lessons: Security review added 2 weeks

Adjustments:
  - Current project 20% larger than Project B
  - Similar complexity and team composition
  - Estimated Duration: 10-12 weeks
  - Estimated Cost: $120,000-$140,000

Confidence Level: 75% (medium, due to some differences)

// Resource allocation and estimation

class ResourceEstimation {
  calculateResourceNeeds(projectDuration, tasks) {
    const resourceMap = {
      'Senior Developer': 0,
      'Mid-Level Developer': 0,
      'Junior Developer': 0,
      'QA Engineer': 0,
      'DevOps Engineer': 0,
      'Project Manager': 0
    };

    let totalEffort = 0;

    for (let task of tasks) {
      resourceMap[task.requiredRole] += task.effortHours;
      totalEffort += task.effortHours;
    }

    // Calculate FTE (Full Time Equivalent) needed
    const fteMap = {};
    for (let role in resourceMap) {
      fteMap[role] = (resourceMap[role] / (projectDuration * 8 * 5)).toFixed(2);
    }

    return {
      effortByRole: resourceMap,
      fte: fteMap,
      totalEffortHours: totalEffort,
      totalWorkDays: totalEffort / 8,
      costEstimate: this.calculateCost(fteMap)
    };
  }

  calculateCost(fteMap) {
    const dailyRates = {
      'Senior Developer': 1200,
      'Mid-Level Developer': 900,
      'Junior Developer': 600,
      'QA Engineer': 700,
      'DevOps Engineer': 950,
      'Project Manager': 800
    };

    let totalCost = 0;
    const costByRole = {};

    for (let role in fteMap) {
      const fteDays = fteMap[role] * 250; // 250 working days/year
      costByRole[role] = fteDays * dailyRates[role];
      totalCost += costByRole[role];
    }

    return {
      byRole: costByRole,
      total: totalCost,
      currency: 'USD'
    };
  }
}

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