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Prediction Market Oracle Research

预测市场预言机研究

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
当考虑将预测市场作为数据源、预测输入类预言机信号或决策智能层时，可使用本技能。

Guardrails

约束规则

  • Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
  • Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
  • Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
  • Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
  • For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run 
    llm-trading-agent-security
    before granting any write authority.
  • 请勿将市场价格视为客观事实。
  • 请勿提供投资建议或交易推荐。
  • 将场所机制、流动性、激励措施及结算规则与隐含信号区分开来。
  • 需指出操纵行为、流动性不足、市场停滞及结果不明确等问题。
  • 对于链上或与执行相关的系统，在授予任何写入权限前，需运行
    llm-trading-agent-security
    。

Research Workflow

研究流程

  1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
  2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
  3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
  4. Evaluate signal quality:
    • liquidity
    • spread
    • market age
    • trader/incentive concentration if known
    • resolution authority
    • geography or account restrictions
  5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
  6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
  1. 明确该信号旨在支持的决策内容。
  2. 找到相关市场、事件、标签及交易场所。
  3. 记录带有时间戳和来源链接的市场隐含概率。
  4. 评估信号质量：
    • 流动性
    • 买卖价差
    • 市场存续时长
    • 交易者/激励集中度（如有相关信息）
    • 结算权威机构
    • 地域或账户限制
  5. 与非市场来源进行对比，如备案文件、新闻、民意调查、研究报告、客户数据或内部关键绩效指标（KPI）。
  6. 建议该信号对于既定决策是否可用、作用较弱或完全不适用。

Integration Patterns

集成模式

  • Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
  • Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
  • Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
  • Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
  • Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
  • 研究助手：为人类分析师提供基于数据源的上下文信息。
  • 仪表盘信号：将市场隐含概率与内部指标一同展示。
  • Agent记忆输入：可在后续检索的带时间戳信号。
  • 告警输入：当概率、价差或流动性超过阈值时发出通知。
  • 场景规划：对比多种事件结果，无需自动化交易。

Output Contract

输出规范

Use:
  1. decision context
  2. market sources
  3. signal quality
  4. comparison sources
  5. integration recommendation
  6. caveats
End with:
text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
需包含：
  1. 决策背景
  2. 市场来源
  3. 信号质量
  4. 对比来源
  5. 集成建议
  6. 注意事项
结尾需添加：
text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.