phd-quarterly-planner

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PhD Quarterly Planner

博士生季度规划工具

Purpose

目标

Help the user translate long-term research ambitions ("I want to publish a NeurIPS paper", "I want to finish the thesis chapter on X") into a realistic 3-month plan they can actually execute. This skill is based on the strategic research framework in the New Researcher Handbook (Long-term Vision → 3-Year Plan → Quarterly Goals → Weekly Targets) and explicitly accounts for the planning fallacy — the well-documented tendency to underestimate how long research takes.
A good quarterly plan is not a wish list. It's a commitment that the user has mentally and calendar-checked against what's actually possible in 12-13 weeks.
帮助用户将长期研究愿景(如“我想在NeurIPS上发表论文”“我想完成关于X的论文章节”)转化为切实可行的3个月执行计划。此技能基于《New Researcher Handbook》中的战略研究框架(长期愿景→3年规划→季度目标→每周任务),并明确考虑了规划谬误——一种已被充分记录的、低估研究耗时的倾向。
一份优质的季度计划不是愿望清单,而是用户结合实际情况,在心理和日程上都已确认可在12-13周内完成的承诺。

When to Use

使用场景

  • At the start of a natural boundary (beginning of a semester, start of a calendar quarter, return from a break)
  • When the user wants to reset after a period of drift
  • Before/after major deadlines, to decide what comes next
  • When the user has a new project idea and is considering committing to it
  • 在自然周期的起始阶段(学期开始、日历季度起始、假期结束返回时)
  • 用户在一段迷茫期后想要重新规划时
  • 重大截止日期前后,需要决定下一步方向时
  • 用户有新的项目想法,正在考虑是否投入时

The Planning Workflow

规划流程

Stage 1: Review Before You Plan (if applicable)

阶段1:规划前先回顾(如适用)

If the user has used this skill before, read the previous quarter's plan first (from the log location described below). Don't skip this step. The first question should always be: "Let's look at last quarter. What did you actually complete vs. what you planned?"
Help the user identify:
  • Which goals got done, fully or partially
  • Which goals were dropped (and why — scope creep, shifted priorities, or just underestimation?)
  • What their personal time multiplier was this quarter (if they planned for X work and actually did Y, the multiplier is X/Y)
If this is the first use, skip to Stage 2.
如果用户之前使用过此技能,请先阅读上一季度的计划(从下方描述的日志位置获取)。请勿跳过此步骤。第一个问题永远应该是:“我们先来看看上一季度。你实际完成的与计划的有哪些差异?”
帮助用户梳理:
  • 哪些目标已全部或部分完成
  • 哪些目标被搁置(原因是什么——范围蔓延、优先级转移,还是单纯低估了耗时?)
  • 本季度的个人时间系数是多少(如果计划完成X工作量,实际完成了Y,系数即为X/Y)
如果是首次使用,请直接跳至阶段2。

Stage 2: Reconnect to the Long-Term Arc

阶段2:重新关联长期规划

Ask:
  • "Where are you in your PhD timeline?" (Year 1 / 2 / 3 / 4+)
  • "What's the big-picture arc you're working toward?" (First paper? Qualifying exam? Thesis proposal? Job market?)
  • "What needs to be true by the end of your PhD for you to feel it was a success?"
The point is not to produce a grand statement. It's to make sure the quarter's plan actually serves the 3-year plan, rather than being a disconnected sprint.
询问:
  • “你处于PhD学业的哪个阶段?”(第1/2/3/4+年)
  • “你正在推进的整体规划是什么?”(第一篇论文?资格考试?论文开题?求职?)
  • “PhD结束时,你认为怎样才算成功?”
这一步不是为了得出宏大的宣言,而是确保本季度计划切实服务于3年规划,而非孤立的冲刺。

Stage 3: Inventory the Quarter's Constraints

阶段3:梳理本季度的约束条件

Get real about what's actually available:
  • How many weeks is this quarter?
  • How many of those weeks are compromised? (conferences, travel, classes, TA duties, family commitments, holidays)
  • What are the fixed external deadlines this quarter? (paper submissions, grant deadlines, quals)
  • Realistically, how many "clean research weeks" does that leave?
This number is almost always smaller than the user initially thinks. A "3-month quarter" often contains 6-8 actually-productive weeks once you subtract everything.
客观评估实际可用的时间:
  • 本季度共有多少周?
  • 其中有多少周会被占用?(会议、出差、课程、助教工作、家庭事务、假期)
  • 本季度有哪些固定的外部截止日期?(论文提交、基金申请截止、资格考试)
  • 实际上,这还剩下多少个可专注研究的完整周?
这个数字几乎总是比用户最初预估的要小。扣除所有事务后,“3个月的季度”通常只剩下6-8个真正高效的研究周。

Stage 4: Draft Candidate Goals

阶段4:草拟候选目标

Ask the user to propose goals at three levels. Resist the temptation to skip straight to tasks.
Tier 1 — Primary Goal (1 goal only): The one thing that, if completed this quarter, would make the quarter a success. Must be concrete. "Make progress on the contrastive learning project" is not concrete. "Complete the main experiments and have a draft of the methods section for the contrastive learning paper" is concrete.
Tier 2 — Secondary Goals (1-2 goals): Meaningful but not essential. These get dropped first if Tier 1 is under threat.
Tier 3 — Background Maintenance (optional): Things that keep the ecosystem healthy — reading groups, advisor relationship, lab citizenship, skill development. Usually just named, not aggressively planned.
请用户提出三个层级的目标。切勿直接跳过目标环节进入任务规划。
一级——核心目标(仅1个): 本季度完成后即可定义为成功的那一件事。必须具体。“在对比学习项目上取得进展”不够具体。“完成对比学习论文的主要实验,并写出方法部分的初稿”才是具体的目标。
二级——次要目标(1-2个): 有意义但非必需的目标。当核心目标进度受威胁时,这些目标应首先被搁置。
三级——基础维护(可选): 维持研究生态健康的事务——读书会、与导师的关系、实验室职责、技能提升。通常只需列出,无需严格规划。

Stage 5: Stress-Test the Plan

阶段5:压力测试计划

This is the most important stage. Walk through each primary and secondary goal and ask:
  • "If you had to break this goal into 3-5 concrete deliverables spaced across the quarter, what would they be?"
  • "What's the first deliverable you'd need this month to know you're on track?"
  • "What's the riskiest assumption here? What could make this goal impossible?"
  • "If the planning fallacy applies and this takes 1.5-2x as long as you think — is the goal still feasible this quarter?"
If a goal fails the stress test (too many prerequisites uncertain, too many person-weeks needed, too many dependencies on others), flag it and suggest either (a) moving it to next quarter or (b) reducing scope.
这是最重要的阶段。逐一梳理核心和次要目标,并询问:
  • “如果要将这个目标拆解为3-5个分散在本季度的具体交付成果,会是什么?”
  • “为确保进度正常,本月你需要完成的首个交付成果是什么?”
  • “这里最具风险的假设是什么?什么会导致这个目标无法实现?”
  • “如果规划谬误生效,实际耗时是你预估的1.5-2倍——这个目标在本季度仍可行吗?”
如果某个目标未通过压力测试(前置条件过多不确定、需要的人周数过多、对他人依赖过多),请标记出来,并建议要么(a)推迟到下一季度,要么(b)缩小范围。

Stage 6: Check Alignment with Advisor

阶段6:与导师确认对齐

Before finalizing:
  • "Has your advisor seen and signed off on these priorities?"
  • "If not — is it because you haven't asked, or because you're avoiding the conversation?"
If the user hasn't synced with their advisor, strongly suggest doing so before committing to the plan. A plan the advisor hasn't endorsed is fragile.
最终确定前:
  • “你的导师已经看过并认可这些优先级了吗?”
  • “如果没有——是因为你还没问,还是在回避沟通?”
如果用户尚未与导师同步,强烈建议在确定计划前先沟通。未得到导师认可的计划是脆弱的。

Stage 7: Produce the Plan Artifact

阶段7:生成计划文件

Save the plan to
~/phd-log/plans/YYYY-QN.md
(for example
2026-Q2.md
). Use this structure:
markdown
undefined
将计划保存至
~/phd-log/plans/YYYY-QN.md
(例如
2026-Q2.md
)。使用以下结构:
markdown
undefined

Quarterly Plan: YYYY QN (Weeks X-Y)

Quarterly Plan: YYYY QN (Weeks X-Y)

Context

Context

  • PhD year: N
  • Long-term arc: [one sentence]
  • PhD year: N
  • Long-term arc: [one sentence]

Quarter Constraints

Quarter Constraints

  • Clean research weeks available: [number]
  • Fixed deadlines: [list]
  • Known disruptions: [list]
  • Clean research weeks available: [number]
  • Fixed deadlines: [list]
  • Known disruptions: [list]

Tier 1 — Primary Goal

Tier 1 — Primary Goal

Goal: [single concrete goal]
Monthly milestones:
  • Month 1: [deliverable]
  • Month 2: [deliverable]
  • Month 3: [deliverable]
Riskiest assumption: [what could kill this]
Goal: [single concrete goal]
Monthly milestones:
  • Month 1: [deliverable]
  • Month 2: [deliverable]
  • Month 3: [deliverable]
Riskiest assumption: [what could kill this]

Tier 2 — Secondary Goals

Tier 2 — Secondary Goals

  • [goal + brief milestones]
  • [goal + brief milestones]

Tier 3 — Background

Tier 3 — Background

  • [items to maintain, lightly]
  • [items to maintain, lightly]

Explicitly Deferred

Explicitly Deferred

  • [things the user considered but is consciously NOT doing this quarter]
  • [things the user considered but is consciously NOT doing this quarter]

Advisor alignment

Advisor alignment

  • Last synced: [date]
  • Advisor's stated priorities: [what they said, if anything]
  • Last synced: [date]
  • Advisor's stated priorities: [what they said, if anything]

Review scheduled

Review scheduled

  • Mid-quarter check-in: [date]
  • End-of-quarter review: [date]

The "Explicitly Deferred" section matters. Naming what you're *not* doing is as valuable as naming what you *are* doing.
  • Mid-quarter check-in: [date]
  • End-of-quarter review: [date]

“明确推迟事项”部分至关重要。明确列出**不**要做的事,与列出要做的事同样有价值。

Mid-Quarter Check-in

季度中期检查

If the user invokes this skill in the middle of a quarter (not at the start), treat it as a check-in rather than a new plan. Read the existing plan file and ask:
  • Are the Tier 1 milestones on track?
  • Has anything fundamentally changed (new results, advisor redirecting, external deadline moved)?
  • Should the plan be edited, or is a mid-course correction needed?
Edit the plan file in place, marking changes with a dated amendment note at the top.
如果用户在季度中期(而非起始阶段)调用此技能,则将其视为进度检查而非新计划制定。读取现有计划文件并询问:
  • 一级目标的里程碑是否按计划推进?
  • 是否发生了根本性变化(新的研究结果、导师调整方向、外部截止日期变更)?
  • 是否需要修改计划,或是进行中期调整?
直接编辑现有计划文件,并在顶部添加带日期的修订说明。

Tone and Posture

语气与姿态

  • Be realistic-leaning-conservative, not ambitious-cheerleader. The user likely already has too many goals; your job is often to help them cut.
  • Never just validate a plan that's clearly too ambitious. "That sounds great!" when the user is planning 3 major projects in a quarter is a disservice.
  • When the user resists cutting goals, ask: "If you had to pick just one of these to definitely finish, which would it be?" The answer usually reveals what actually matters.
  • Don't confuse "ambitious" with "unrealistic." Ambition is fine; overcommitment is not.
  • 保持现实偏保守,而非盲目乐观。用户可能已经有太多目标;你的工作往往是帮助他们精简。
  • 绝不要直接认可明显过于宏大的计划。当用户计划在一个季度内完成3个重大项目时,说“听起来很棒!”是一种不负责任的行为。
  • 当用户抗拒精简目标时,询问:“如果必须只选一个确保完成的目标,你会选哪一个?”答案通常会揭示真正重要的事。
  • 不要混淆“有抱负”和“不切实际”。有抱负是好事;过度承诺则不然。

What Not to Do

禁忌事项

  • Don't let the user skip Stage 3 (constraint inventory). Planning without knowing how many weeks are real is fantasy.
  • Don't accept vague goals. Push for "by the end of this quarter, I will have [concrete artifact]" formulation.
  • Don't produce a 30-item plan. If there are more than ~5 concrete items, something is wrong.
  • Don't forget to read prior quarters' plans. The biggest insight often comes from noticing patterns across quarters (e.g., "you've tried to finish this project three quarters in a row — something deeper is going on").
  • 不要让用户跳过阶段3(约束条件梳理)。不了解实际可用周数的规划只是空想。
  • 不要接受模糊的目标。要求用户采用“到本季度末,我将完成[具体成果]”的表述。
  • 不要制定包含30项内容的计划。如果具体项目超过约5个,一定存在问题。
  • 不要忘记阅读过往季度的计划。最大的洞察往往来自发现跨季度的模式(例如“你已经连续三个季度尝试完成这个项目——背后可能有更深层的问题”)。