market-researcher

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Market Researcher

市场研究专家

Purpose

核心目标

Provides comprehensive market research expertise specializing in market sizing, consumer behavior analysis, and strategic opportunity identification. Excels at quantitative market analysis, qualitative consumer insights, and strategic market positioning for business decision-making.
提供专注于市场规模测算、消费者行为分析及战略机会识别的全面市场研究专业能力。擅长为商业决策提供量化市场分析、质性消费者洞察以及战略市场定位服务。

When to Use

适用场景

  • Sizing markets (TAM/SAM/SOM calculations)
  • Analyzing consumer behavior and purchase decisions
  • Conducting competitive market analysis
  • Identifying market opportunities and white spaces
  • Validating product-market fit or positioning strategies
  • 测算市场规模(TAM/SAM/SOM计算)
  • 分析消费者行为与购买决策
  • 开展竞争市场分析
  • 识别市场机会与空白领域
  • 验证产品-市场契合度或定位策略

Quick Start

快速入门

Invoke this skill when:
  • Sizing markets (TAM/SAM/SOM calculations)
  • Analyzing consumer behavior and purchase decisions
  • Conducting competitive market analysis
  • Identifying market opportunities and white spaces
  • Validating product-market fit or positioning strategies
Do NOT invoke when:
  • Analyzing direct competitors only (use competitive-analyst instead)
  • Pure data analysis without market context (use data-analyst)
  • Sales forecasting from existing data (use data-scientist)
  • Marketing campaign execution (use content-marketer or seo-specialist)


在以下场景调用此技能:
  • 测算市场规模(TAM/SAM/SOM计算)
  • 分析消费者行为与购买决策
  • 开展竞争市场分析
  • 识别市场机会与空白领域
  • 验证产品-市场契合度或定位策略
请勿在以下场景调用:
  • 仅分析直接竞争对手(请使用competitive-analyst)
  • 脱离市场背景的纯数据分析(请使用data-analyst)
  • 基于现有数据的销售预测(请使用data-scientist)
  • 营销活动执行(请使用content-marketer或seo-specialist)


Core Workflows

核心工作流

Workflow 1: Calculate TAM, SAM, SOM

工作流1:测算TAM、SAM、SOM

Use case: Sizing addressable market for new product or investment decision
Step 1: Define Market Scope
Market Definition Template:
- Product/Service: [Specific offering]
- Geography: [Target regions]
- Customer Segment: [Who specifically?]
- Time Frame: [Current year or 5-year projection?]

Example:
- Product: AI-powered customer service chatbot for e-commerce
- Geography: United States
- Customer Segment: E-commerce companies with \u003e$10M revenue
- Time Frame: 2024-2029
Step 2: Calculate TAM (Top-Down Approach)
TAM = Total market demand if 100% market share

Data sources:
1. Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, IBISWorld)
2. Government statistics (Census Bureau, BLS)
3. Trade associations

Example calculation:
Total US e-commerce market: $1.1T (2024)
× % needing customer service: 80%
× Average customer service spend: 2.5% of revenue
TAM = $1.1T × 80% × 2.5% = $22B
Step 3: Calculate SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)
SAM = Portion of TAM you can realistically serve

Filters to apply:
- Geographic constraints (if only operating in US)
- Product limitations (if only for e-commerce, not all retail)
- Customer size constraints (if targeting $10M+ companies)

Example:
E-commerce companies \u003e$10M revenue: 15,000 companies
× Average annual customer service budget: $500K
SAM = 15,000 × $500K = $7.5B
Step 4: Calculate SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
SOM = Realistic market share you can capture in near term (1-3 years)

Factors:
- Competitive landscape (how many competitors?)
- Your differentiation (unique value prop strength)
- Sales \u0026 marketing capacity (realistic reach)
- Growth trajectory (realistic penetration rate)

Conservative SOM:
Year 1: 0.1-0.5% of SAM
Year 2: 0.5-2% of SAM
Year 3: 1-5% of SAM

Example (Year 3):
SOM = $7.5B × 2% = $150M
Step 5: Bottom-Up Validation
Validate top-down sizing with bottom-up:

Unit Economics Approach:
- Target customers: 15,000 e-commerce companies
- Realistic conversion rate: 5% (industry benchmark)
- Customers acquired: 750
- Average contract value: $50K/year
- Bottom-up market capture: 750 × $50K = $37.5M

Compare: Top-down SOM ($150M) vs Bottom-up ($37.5M)
If gap \u003e3x → revisit assumptions


适用场景: 为新产品或投资决策测算目标市场规模
步骤1:定义市场范围
市场定义模板:
- 产品/服务:[具体产品]
- 地域:[目标区域]
- 客户细分:[具体目标客户]
- 时间范围:[当前年份或5年预测期?]

示例:
- 产品:面向电商的AI驱动客户服务聊天机器人
- 地域:美国
- 客户细分:年收入超1000万美元的电商企业
- 时间范围:2024-2029年
步骤2:测算TAM(自上而下法)
TAM = 占据100%市场份额时的总市场需求

数据来源:
1. 行业报告(Gartner、Forrester、IBISWorld)
2. 政府统计数据(美国人口普查局、劳工统计局)
3. 行业协会

测算示例:
美国电商市场总规模:1.1万亿美元(2024年)
× 需要客户服务的企业占比:80%
× 客户服务平均支出占营收比例:2.5%
TAM = 1.1万亿美元 × 80% × 2.5% = 220亿美元
步骤3:测算SAM(可服务目标市场规模)
SAM = 企业实际可触达的TAM部分

需应用的筛选条件:
- 地域限制(如仅在美国运营)
- 产品局限性(如仅面向电商,而非全零售行业)
- 客户规模限制(如仅针对年收入超1000万美元的企业)

示例:
年收入超1000万美元的电商企业:15000家
× 年均客户服务预算:50万美元
SAM = 15000 × 50万美元 = 750亿美元
步骤4:测算SOM(可获得的实际市场规模)
SOM = 短期内(1-3年)可占据的合理市场份额

影响因素:
- 竞争格局(竞争对手数量)
- 差异化优势(独特价值主张的强度)
- 销售与营销能力(实际触达范围)
- 增长轨迹(合理的渗透率)

保守型SOM测算:
第1年:SAM的0.1-0.5%
第2年:SAM的0.5-2%
第3年:SAM的1-5%

示例(第3年):
SOM = 750亿美元 × 2% = 15亿美元
步骤5:自下而上验证
用自下而上法验证自上而下的测算结果:

单位经济模型法:
- 目标客户:15000家电商企业
- 合理转化率:5%(行业基准)
- 获客数量:750家
- 平均合同价值:每年5万美元
- 自下而上市场规模:750 × 5万美元 = 3.75亿美元

对比:自上而下SOM(15亿美元) vs 自下而上(3.75亿美元)
若差距>3倍 → 重新审视假设条件


Workflow 3: Competitive Market Analysis

工作流3:竞争市场分析

Use case: Understanding competitive landscape and positioning opportunities
Step 1: Identify Competitors
Competitor Categories:
1. Direct: Same product, same target customer
2. Indirect: Different product, solves same problem
3. Substitute: Alternative way to address need
4. Potential: Could enter market easily

Example (Project Management Software):
- Direct: Asana, Monday.com, ClickUp
- Indirect: Excel/Sheets (for simple tracking)
- Substitute: Consultants (outsource instead of software)
- Potential: Microsoft, Google (have adjacent products)
Step 2: Competitive Intelligence Gathering
Data Sources Matrix:

Public Information:
- Company websites (pricing, features, positioning)
- App store reviews (4.2★ rating, "easy to use" appears 45%)
- Social media (follower count, engagement rate)
- Job postings (hiring for X roles = growing that area)

Industry Sources:
- Gartner Magic Quadrant (market position)
- G2 Crowd reviews (feature comparison, user satisfaction)
- Crunchbase (funding, valuation, investor profiles)
- LinkedIn (employee count trends, key hires)

Competitive Metrics Template:
| Competitor | Pricing | Features | Market Share | Customer Satisfaction |
|------------|---------|----------|--------------|----------------------|
| Asana | $10-25/user/mo | 85% feature parity | ~20% | 4.5/5 (G2) |
| Monday.com | $8-16/user/mo | 90% feature parity | ~15% | 4.6/5 (G2) |
Step 3: Positioning Map
Create 2D positioning map:
X-axis: Price (Low → High)
Y-axis: Feature Complexity (Simple → Advanced)

┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│ Advanced                        │
│                    [Enterprise] │
│                                 │
│  [Our Product]         [Leader] │
│                                 │
│                        [Asana]  │
│  [Budget Option]                │
│ Simple                          │
└─────────────────────────────────┘
  Low Price            High Price

Insight: Gap in "Simple but Premium" quadrant = opportunity


适用场景: 了解竞争格局与定位机会
步骤1:识别竞争对手
竞争对手分类:
1. 直接竞品:相同产品,相同目标客户
2. 间接竞品:不同产品,解决相同问题
3. 替代方案:满足需求的其他方式
4. 潜在竞品:可轻松进入市场的企业

示例(项目管理软件):
- 直接竞品:Asana、Monday.com、ClickUp
- 间接竞品:Excel/Sheets(用于简单跟踪)
- 替代方案:咨询服务商(外包而非使用软件)
- 潜在竞品:Microsoft、Google(拥有相邻产品)
步骤2:收集竞争情报
数据来源矩阵:

公开信息:
- 企业官网(定价、功能、定位)
- 应用商店评论(4.2星评分,“易于使用”出现45次)
- 社交媒体(粉丝数、互动率)
- 招聘信息(招聘某类岗位=该领域在扩张)

行业来源:
- Gartner魔力象限(市场地位)
- G2 Crowd评论(功能对比、用户满意度)
- Crunchbase(融资、估值、投资者概况)
- LinkedIn(员工数量趋势、核心招聘)

竞争指标模板:
| 竞争对手 | 定价 | 功能 | 市场份额 | 用户满意度 |
|------------|---------|----------|--------------|----------------------|
| Asana | 10-25美元/用户/月 | 85%功能匹配度 | ~20% | 4.5/5(G2) |
| Monday.com | 8-16美元/用户/月 | 90%功能匹配度 | ~15% | 4.6/5(G2) |
步骤3:定位地图
创建二维定位地图:
X轴:价格(低 → 高)
Y轴:功能复杂度(简单 → 高级)

┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│ 高级功能区                      │
│                    [企业级产品] │
│                                 │
│  [我们的产品]         [行业领导者] │
│                                 │
│                        [Asana]  │
│  [经济型选项]                │
│ 简单功能区                      │
└─────────────────────────────────┘
  低价区            高价区

洞察:“简单但高端”象限存在空白 → 市场机会


Pattern 2: Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Analysis

模式2:Van Westendorp价格敏感度分析

When to use: Determining optimal pricing
Survey Questions (ask in this order):
1. At what price would you consider this product to be so expensive 
   that you would not consider buying it? (Too Expensive)

2. At what price would you consider this product to be priced so low 
   that you would feel the quality couldn't be very good? (Too Cheap)

3. At what price would you consider this product starting to get 
   expensive, so that it is not out of the question, but you would 
   have to give some thought to buying it? (Expensive/High Side)

4. At what price would you consider this product to be a bargain—a 
   great buy for the money? (Cheap/Good Value)

Analysis:
- Plot cumulative % for each price point
- Optimal Price Point (OPP) = intersection of "Too Expensive" and "Too Cheap"
- Acceptable Price Range = between "Too Cheap" and "Too Expensive" intersections

Example Results:
OPP: $49/month
Range: $35-$75/month
Recommendation: Price at $49-$59 for maximum acceptance


适用场景: 确定最优定价
调研问题(按此顺序提问):
1. 当价格达到多少时,您会认为该产品太贵而不会考虑购买?(过高价格)

2. 当价格低至多少时,您会认为该产品质量肯定不好?(过低价格)

3. 当价格达到多少时,您会开始觉得该产品偏贵,虽仍会考虑,但需要仔细权衡?(偏高价格)

4. 当价格达到多少时,您会认为该产品很划算,物超所值?(划算价格)

分析方法:
- 绘制各价格点的累计百分比曲线
- 最优价格点(OPP)=“过高价格”与“过低价格”曲线的交点
- 可接受价格区间=“过低价格”与“过高价格”曲线交点之间的范围

示例结果:
最优价格点:49美元/月
可接受区间:35-75美元/月
建议定价:49-59美元/月以实现最高接受度


❌ Anti-Pattern 2: Survey Leading Questions

❌ 反模式2:引导性调研问题

What it looks like:
"Don't you think our innovative new product would solve your problems better than competitors?"

Answer options:
[ ] Yes, absolutely!
[ ] Yes, somewhat
[ ] Maybe
Why it fails:
  • Leading language ("innovative", "better")
  • No negative options (biased toward "yes")
  • Worthless data (everyone says yes)
Correct approach:
"How well does [our product] solve [specific problem] compared to alternatives you've used?"

[ ] Much better
[ ] Somewhat better
[ ] About the same
[ ] Somewhat worse
[ ] Much worse
[ ] Haven't used alternatives


表现形式:
“您不觉得我们创新的新产品比竞品更能解决您的问题吗?”

选项:
[ ] 是的,绝对如此!
[ ] 是的,有点认同
[ ] 也许吧
问题所在:
  • 引导性语言(“创新的”、“更能”)
  • 无负面选项(偏向“是”的答案)
  • 数据无价值(所有人都会选是)
正确做法:
“与您使用过的其他方案相比,[我们的产品]解决[具体问题]的效果如何?”

[ ] 好很多
[ ] 好一些
[ ] 差不多
[ ] 差一些
[ ] 差很多
[ ] 未使用过其他方案


Quality Checklist

质量检查清单

Research Design

研究设计

  • Clear, measurable research objectives defined
  • Sample size calculated for statistical significance
  • Survey/interview questions tested with pilot group
  • No leading or biased questions
  • Mix of qualitative and quantitative methods (if appropriate)
  • 明确、可衡量的研究目标已定义
  • 已计算具备统计显著性的样本量
  • 调研/访谈问题已通过试点测试
  • 无引导性或偏见性问题
  • (如适用)结合了质性与量化研究方法

Data Collection

数据收集

  • Representative sample (demographics match target market)
  • Response rate \u003e25% for surveys (higher is better)
  • Data quality checks during collection
  • Respondent privacy protected (GDPR/CCPA compliant)
  • 样本具有代表性(人口统计特征匹配目标市场)
  • 调研回复率>25%(越高越好)
  • 收集过程中进行数据质量检查
  • 受访者隐私受保护(符合GDPR/CCPA合规要求)

Analysis \u0026 Insights

分析与洞察

  • Statistical significance tested (p-values, confidence intervals)
  • Outliers identified and handled appropriately
  • Multiple hypotheses tested (not just confirmation bias)
  • Insights validated with multiple data points
  • 已测试统计显著性(p值、置信区间)
  • 已识别并妥善处理异常值
  • 已测试多个假设(而非仅验证偏见)
  • 洞察已通过多个数据点验证

Reporting

报告输出

  • Findings actionable (not just "interesting facts")
  • Visualizations clear and accurate
  • Limitations acknowledged
  • Recommendations prioritized by impact

  • 研究结果具备可操作性(而非仅“有趣的事实”)
  • 可视化内容清晰准确
  • 已说明研究局限性
  • 建议按影响优先级排序