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market-regimes

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Market Regimes

市场状态

Last updated: 2026-01-17 20:31 UTC Active patterns: 32 Total samples: 0 Confidence threshold: 60%
最后更新：2026-01-17 20:31 UTC 有效模式：32种 总样本数：0 置信度阈值：60%

How to Use This Skill

如何使用本Skill

  1. Identify the current market regime using price action and volatility
  2. Look up the recommended strategy for that regime below
  3. Adjust your trading approach accordingly
  4. Monitor for regime changes
  1. 通过价格走势和波动率识别当前市场状态
  2. 查阅下方对应状态的推荐策略
  3. 相应调整你的交易方式
  4. 监控市场状态变化

Regime Strategies

状态对应策略

Mixed Choppy

震荡混合市

Recommended approach (93% confidence, seen 1x):
Reduce or eliminate trading. In mixed markets (BNB +0.93%, SOL +1.65%, BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%, DOGE -1.19%), zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed all active traders (all negative PnL). Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0 trades = $0, 2 trades = -$0.29, 160 trades = -$17.96, 201 trades = -$360.24.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度93%，出现1次）:
减少或停止交易。在震荡混合市中（BNB +0.93%、SOL +1.65%、BTC -0.08%、ETH -0.03%、DOGE -1.19%），零交易策略（PnL为$0）表现优于所有主动交易者（所有交易者PnL均为负）。交易频率与表现成反比：0笔交易=$0，2笔交易=-$0.29，160笔交易=-$17.96，201笔交易=-$360.24。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (93% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero trading or extremely low frequency (<25 trades/24h). Market showed BNB +2.03%, ETH +1.02%, DOGE +1.07%, BTC +0.24% but all active traders lost money. Only non-traders preserved capital. If trading, long-only on strongest performers (BNB).
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度93%，出现1次）:
零交易或极低频率交易（<25笔/24小时）。市场中BNB +2.03%、ETH +1.02%、DOGE +1.07%、BTC +0.24%，但所有主动交易者均亏损。只有不交易的投资者保住了本金。若要交易，仅做多表现最强的资产（BNB）。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (92% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero trading or very low frequency (<30 trades/24h) with long-only bias. Market up +0.63% to +2.15% across all assets - passive strategies outperformed all active traders. Only skill_only_oss with 89 trades and selective longs achieved positive PnL.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度92%，出现1次）:
零交易或极低频率交易（<30笔/24小时），且仅做多。所有资产涨幅在+0.63%至+2.15%之间——被动策略表现优于所有主动交易者。仅skill_only_oss通过89笔交易和选择性做多实现了正PnL。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (90% confidence, seen 1x):
Avoid shorting entirely. All short-biased strategies lost money despite 'bearish' technical signals. Technical indicators gave false bearish readings in a bullish regime.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度90%，出现1次）:
完全避免做空。尽管有“看跌”技术信号，所有偏空策略均亏损。在牛市状态下，技术指标给出了虚假的看跌信号。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (90% confidence, seen 1x):
Avoid shorting entirely. skill_aware_oss lost $-167.78 with 171 trades including BTCUSDT shorts despite 'bearish alignment' signals. Market direction trumps technical signals.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度90%，出现1次）:
完全避免做空。skill_aware_oss进行了171笔交易（包括BTCUSDT做空），尽管有“看跌信号对齐”，仍亏损-$167.78。市场趋势优先于技术信号。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bearish

温和熊市

Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):
Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0-10 trades = $0 to -$30 loss; 76-103 trades = -$44 to -$180 loss. Optimal is <20 trades or pure capital preservation.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-16
推荐策略（置信度88%，出现1次）:
交易频率与表现成反比：0-10笔交易=$0至-$30亏损；76-103笔交易=-$44至-$180亏损。最优选择是交易次数<20笔或纯粹的资本保值。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-16

Mixed Choppy

震荡混合市

Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):
Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, SMA crossovers) generate false signals in mixed markets. Both bullish and bearish aligned trades lost money.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度88%，出现1次）:
在震荡混合市中，技术分析信号（多时间帧对齐、MACD、SMA交叉）会产生虚假信号。无论是看涨还是看跌信号的交易均亏损。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection critical: BNB (+2.03%) significantly outperformed SOL (-0.09%). Agents focusing on SOL longs (llama4_scout) lost heavily despite 'uptrend' reasoning.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度88%，出现1次）:
资产选择至关重要：BNB（+2.03%）表现显著优于SOL（-0.09%）。专注于SOL做多的Agent（llama4_scout）尽管有“上涨趋势”的判断，仍亏损严重。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bearish

温和熊市

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
Reduce trade frequency dramatically or avoid trading entirely. Zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed active trading strategies (avg -$66 PnL). Only agentic_gptoss profited by actively managing shorts and closing positions to lock gains.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-16
推荐策略（置信度85%，出现1次）:
大幅降低交易频率或完全停止交易。零交易策略（PnL为$0）表现优于主动交易策略（平均PnL为-$66）。仅agentic_gptoss通过主动管理空头仓位并平仓锁定收益实现盈利。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-16

Mixed Choppy

震荡混合市

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
If trading, prefer assets showing clear directional movement (SOL +1.65%, BNB +0.93%) over flat assets (BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%). Avoid shorting in mixed regimes even with bearish technical signals.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度85%，出现1次）:
若要交易，优先选择有明确方向走势的资产（SOL +1.65%、BNB +0.93%），而非横盘资产（BTC -0.08%、ETH -0.03%）。即使有看跌技术信号，也避免在震荡状态下做空。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection: BNB (+2.15%) significantly outperformed BTC (+0.63%). Long positions in higher-beta assets would have captured more upside.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度85%，出现1次）:
资产选择：BNB（+2.15%）表现显著优于BTC（+0.63%）。做多高贝塔资产将获得更多上涨收益。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):
Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, RSI) are unreliable for direction. Both bullish and bearish technical signals led to losses.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-17
推荐策略（置信度85%，出现1次）:
技术分析信号（多时间帧对齐、MACD、RSI）的方向判断不可靠。无论是看涨还是看跌技术信号均导致亏损。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-17

Moderate Bearish

温和熊市

Recommended approach (82% confidence, seen 1x):
Short positions with active profit-taking outperform long positions. agentic_gptoss (+$34.30) succeeded by opening shorts and closing when 'position is already in profit' rather than holding.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-16
推荐策略（置信度82%，出现1次）:
带主动止盈的空头仓位表现优于多头仓位。agentic_gptoss（+$34.30）通过开仓做空并在“仓位已盈利”时平仓而非持有取得成功。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-16

Moderate Bearish

温和熊市

Recommended approach (80% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: DOGE (-3%) showed highest volatility/decline, making it best short target. BNB (-0.61%) showed relative strength, making it worst short target.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-16
推荐策略（置信度80%，出现1次）:
资产选择很重要：DOGE（-3%）波动率/跌幅最高，是最佳做空目标；BNB（-0.61%）表现相对强劲，是最差做空目标。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-16

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (74% confidence, seen 2x):
Active trading with 120-200 trades/24h, multi-timeframe bullish alignment WITH explicit risk validation (2% equity, 2:1 R:R), proactive position management closing losers quickly. skill_aware_oss achieved +$1236.81 with this approach in +2.5% to +6.2% market
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度74%，出现2次）:
主动交易，每日120-200笔交易，结合多时间帧看涨对齐与明确的风险验证（2%权益、2:1风险回报比），主动管理仓位并快速平仓止损。skill_aware_oss在市场涨幅+2.5%至+6.2%时，采用该策略实现了+$1236.81的收益
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (72% confidence, seen 1x):
Optimal trade frequency 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities (ta_baseline -$25.88), above 240 leads to overtrading losses (llama4_scout -$18.95)
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度72%，出现1次）:
最优交易频率为每日120-200笔交易。低于50笔会错失机会（ta_baseline亏损-$25.88），高于240笔会导致过度交易亏损（llama4_scout亏损-$18.95）
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (70% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss +3-6% opportunity. Active validated trading (skill_aware_oss +$1236.81) dramatically outperforms passive approaches
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度70%，出现1次）:
零交易策略保住本金，但错失了3-6%的收益机会。主动且经过验证的交易（skill_aware_oss盈利+$1236.81）表现显著优于被动策略
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (70% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: ETH (+6.16%) significantly outperformed BTC (+3.99%) and BNB (+2.54%). Agents focusing on higher-beta assets (ETH, DOGE) captured more upside
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度70%，出现1次）:
资产选择很重要：ETH（+6.16%）表现显著优于BTC（+3.99%）和BNB（+2.54%）。专注于高贝塔资产（ETH、DOGE）的Agent获得了更多上涨收益
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (68% confidence, seen 1x):
Active trading with 120-200 trades/24h, multi-timeframe bullish alignment, explicit risk validation (2% risk, 2:1 reward), and proactive position management. skill_aware_oss (+$1379.66) and agentic_gptoss (+$689.63) demonstrate this approach works when market is up 2.78-6.44% across all assets.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度68%，出现1次）:
主动交易，每日120-200笔交易，结合多时间帧看涨对齐、明确的风险验证（2%风险、2:1回报）和主动仓位管理。当所有资产涨幅在2.78-6.44%之间时，skill_aware_oss（+$1379.66）和agentic_gptoss（+$689.63）证明该策略有效。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (68% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: ETH (+6.16%) outperformed BTC (+3.99%) and SOL (+2.88%) - agents focusing on highest momentum assets captured more gains
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度68%，出现1次）:
资产选择很重要：ETH（+6.16%）表现优于BTC（+3.99%）和SOL（+2.88%）——专注于最高动量资产的Agent获得了更多收益
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (68% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss +3-6% opportunity cost. In confirmed bull markets, active participation with risk controls outperforms passive approaches
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度68%，出现1次）:
零交易策略保住本金，但错失了3-6%的机会成本。在确认的牛市中，带风险控制的主动参与表现优于被动策略
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (65% confidence, seen 1x):
Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position with active monitoring and willingness to close at breakeven to redeploy capital (gptoss_20b_simple: +$27.88 with 125 trades)
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度65%，出现1次）:
单仓位上限为25%权益，主动监控并愿意在保本价平仓以重新配置资金（gptoss_20b_simple：125笔交易盈利+$27.88）
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (63% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters in bull markets: ETH (+6.44%) outperformed BTC (+4.14%) and SOL (+2.94%). Agents focusing on strongest performers (ETH, DOGE at +5.52%) captured more upside.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度63%，出现1次）:
牛市中资产选择很重要：ETH（+6.44%）表现优于BTC（+4.14%）和SOL（+2.94%）。专注于表现最强资产（ETH、DOGE涨幅+5.52%）的Agent获得了更多上涨收益。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (60% confidence, seen 1x):
Multi-timeframe bullish alignment WITH risk validation and position scaling works in genuine uptrends (+3-5%). Moderate trade frequency (150-200) captures moves without overtrading. Focus on strongest movers (ETH, DOGE) not laggards (SOL).
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度60%，出现1次）:
在真正的上涨趋势（3-5%涨幅）中，结合风险验证和仓位缩放的多时间帧看涨对齐策略有效。中等交易频率（150-200笔）既能抓住走势又不会过度交易。专注于表现最强的资产（ETH、DOGE）而非滞后资产（SOL）。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (60% confidence, seen 1x):
Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position (gptoss_20b_simple reasoning) allows meaningful exposure while maintaining diversification. gptoss_20b_simple achieved +$27.88 with 124 trades using this approach.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度60%，出现1次）:
单仓位上限为25%权益（gptoss_20b_simple的策略），既能获得可观的风险敞口又能保持分散化。gptoss_20b_simple采用该策略进行124笔交易，盈利+$27.88。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (58% confidence, seen 1x):
Asset selection matters: ETH (+4.96%) and DOGE (+4.77%) outperformed. Agents focusing on BTC (+3.14%) and SOL (+1.55%) captured less alpha.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度58%，出现1次）:
资产选择很重要：ETH（+4.96%）和DOGE（+4.77%）表现更优。专注于BTC（+3.14%）和SOL（+1.55%）的Agent获得的超额收益更少。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (57% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss opportunity cost. In this window with +2.78% to +6.44% gains, passive strategies underperformed active risk-managed approaches by significant margin.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度57%，出现1次）:
零交易策略保住本金，但错失机会成本。在这段涨幅2.78%至6.44%的时间段内，被动策略表现显著落后于主动风险管理策略。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Trending Up

上涨趋势

Recommended approach (55% confidence, seen 1x):
Active loss management - closing losing positions quickly to free margin for winners. agentic_gptoss and gptoss_120b_simple both used this successfully.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度55%，出现1次）:
主动止损管理——快速平仓亏损仓位以释放保证金用于盈利仓位。agentic_gptoss和gptoss_120b_simple均成功采用了该策略。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Sideways Flat

横盘整理

Recommended approach (52% confidence, seen 1x):
Reduce trade frequency to <10 trades/day; passive index allocation outperforms active trading; avoid leveraged positions entirely; wait for clear directional breakout before engaging
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-13
推荐策略（置信度52%，出现1次）:
将交易频率降至每日<10笔；被动指数配置表现优于主动交易；完全避免杠杆仓位；等待明确的方向性突破后再参与交易
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-13

Moderate Bull

温和牛市

Recommended approach (50% confidence, seen 1x):
Zero-trade strategies (gpt_simple, index_fund) preserve capital but miss +3-5% opportunities. In confirmed uptrends, some participation is optimal.
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-14
推荐策略（置信度50%，出现1次）:
零交易策略（gpt_simple、index_fund）保住本金，但错失了3-5%的收益机会。在确认的上涨趋势中，适度参与交易是最优选择。
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-14

Low Volatility Mixed

低波动震荡

Recommended approach (48% confidence, seen 1x):
When all assets show <0.1% absolute movement, avoid opening new positions; fee drag exceeds potential profit; technical signals (SMA, MACD, multi-timeframe alignment) produce false signals in this regime
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-13
推荐策略（置信度48%，出现1次）:
当所有资产波动绝对值<0.1%时，避免开新仓；手续费成本超过潜在利润；在该状态下，技术信号（SMA、MACD、多时间帧对齐）会产生虚假信号
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-13

Sideways Flat

横盘整理

Recommended approach (45% confidence, seen 1x):
Mean-reversion and momentum strategies both fail; only capital preservation strategies (hold cash, minimal index allocation) succeed
  • Total observations: 0
  • First identified: 2026-01-13
推荐策略（置信度45%，出现1次）:
均值回归和动量策略均失效；只有资本保值策略（持有现金、最小化指数配置）有效
  • 总观测数：0
  • 首次识别时间：2026-01-13

Confidence Guide

置信度指南

ConfidenceInterpretation
90%+High confidence - strong historical support
70-90%Moderate confidence - use with other signals
60-70%Low confidence - consider as one input
<60%Experimental - needs more data
This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.
置信度解读
90%+高置信度 - 有强历史数据支撑
70-90%中等置信度 - 需结合其他信号使用
60-70%低置信度 - 仅作为参考输入之一
<60%实验性 - 需要更多数据验证
本Skill由Observer Agent自动生成并更新。