Loading...
Loading...
Found 39 Skills
Expert guidance for systematic backtesting of trading strategies. Use when developing, testing, stress-testing, or validating quantitative trading strategies. Covers "beating ideas to death" methodology, parameter robustness testing, slippage modeling, bias prevention, and interpreting backtest results. Applicable when user asks about backtesting, strategy validation, robustness testing, avoiding overfitting, or systematic trading development.
Plan resource capacity — workload analysis and utilization forecasting. Use when heading into quarterly planning, the team feels overallocated and you need the numbers, deciding whether to hire or deprioritize, or stress-testing whether upcoming projects fit the people you have.
Get a second opinion via Codex MCP. Use for stress-testing ideas, getting fresh perspective, steelmanning arguments, or iteratively refining work through expert back-and-forth. Invoke for ANY request involving external review, feedback, or consultation.
Run a pre-mortem risk analysis on a PRD or launch plan. Categorizes risks as Tigers (real problems), Paper Tigers (overblown concerns), and Elephants (unspoken worries), then classifies as launch-blocking, fast-follow, or track. Use when preparing for launch, stress-testing a product plan, or identifying what could go wrong.
Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting framework applied to a business decision, investment thesis, or strategic question. Spawns a team of specialist agents — Calibrator, Decomposer, Updater, Devil's Advocate, Scorekeeper — who each apply a different piece of the superforecasting methodology. The lead synthesizes into a calibrated probability estimate with Brier-scoreable predictions, explicit base rates, and an accountability structure for keeping score over time. Use when the user says "tetlock this", "what's the probability", "how confident should I be", "forecast this", "calibrate this", proposes a business thesis and wants probabilistic stress-testing, or wants to apply superforecasting to a decision. Works standalone or after /munger.
Brainstorm product ideas, explore problem spaces, and challenge assumptions as a thinking partner. Use when exploring a new opportunity, generating solutions to a product problem, stress-testing an idea, or when a PM needs to think out loud with a sharp sparring partner before converging on a direction.
Devil's Advocate stress-testing for code, architecture, PRs, and decisions. Surfaces hidden flaws through structured adversarial analysis with metacognitive depth. Use for high-stakes review, stress-testing choices, or when the user wants problems found deliberately. NOT for routine code review (use engineering:code-review). Triggers on "스트레스 테스트", "stress test", "devil's advocate", "반론", "이거 괜찮아", "문제 없을까", "깊은 리뷰", "critical review", "adversarial".
Produces a one-page lean canvas across nine interlocking blocks (problem, customer, UVP, solution, channels, revenue, cost, metrics, unfair advantage) with optional inline HTML and SVG visual rendering. Use when framing a new product thesis, stress-testing an existing strategy, comparing strategic options side-by-side, or aligning a team on business-model assumptions. Works as a strategic hub that cross-links to deeper PM skills without duplicating them.
Identify risky assumptions for a feature idea in an existing product across Value, Usability, Viability, and Feasibility. Uses multi-perspective devil's advocate thinking. Use when stress-testing a feature idea, doing risk assessment, or preparing for assumption mapping.
Generates an evidence-calibrated product or marketing persona using the canonical v2.5 output contract. Use when shaping artifact perspective, stress-testing decisions, or framing product and GTM strategy.
Create diverse synthetic test inputs for LLM pipeline evaluation using dimension-based tuple generation. Use when bootstrapping an eval dataset, when real user data is sparse, or when stress-testing specific failure hypotheses. Do NOT use when you already have 100+ representative real traces (use stratified sampling instead), or when the task is collecting production logs.
Devil's Advocate stress-testing for code, architecture, PRs, and decisions. Surfaces hidden flaws through structured adversarial analysis with metacognitive depth. Use for high-stakes review, stress-testing choices, or when the user wants problems found deliberately. NOT for routine code review (use engineering:code-review). Triggers on "스트레스 테스트", "stress test", "devil's advocate", "반론", "이거 괜찮아", "문제 없을까", "깊은 리뷰", "critical review", "adversarial".