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Apply causal inference methods — counterfactual framework, instrumental variables, propensity score matching, and difference-in-differences — to estimate causal effects from observational data. Use this skill when the user needs to determine if X caused Y from non-experimental data, evaluate program/policy impact without a randomized trial, or control for confounders — even if they say 'did this change cause the improvement', 'how do we measure the impact without an experiment', or 'is this correlation or causation'.