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Found 29 Skills
Annie Duke's Decision Quality framework applied to a business decision. Spawns a team of specialist agents — Resulting Auditor, Calibrator, Pre-Mortem Analyst, Quit Strategist, Process Architect — who each apply a distinct lens from Duke's framework to evaluate whether a decision is sound regardless of outcome. The lead synthesizes into a stacking analysis: which biases are operating, which process flaws exist, and the honest Duke verdict. Use when the user says "duke this", "is this a good bet", "should I quit", "evaluate this decision", or faces any high-stakes choice under uncertainty and wants rigorous decision-process analysis. Works as a standalone analysis or after /office-hours.
Run blameless post-mortems and retrospectives with root-cause analysis and action tracking.
Prospective failure analysis using Gary Klein's swing-mortem technique. Assumes complete failure, works backward to identify risks, leading indicators, and circuit breakers. Counters optimism bias by forcing systematic exploration of failure modes before they materialize. Use for project plans, architecture decisions, technology adoption, business strategy, or feature launches. Triggers on "리스크", "위험", "실패하면", "swing-mortem", "뭐가 잘못될 수 있어", "risk", "what could go wrong", "걱정되는 점", "failure modes", "리스크 분석", "위험 분석".
Identify failure modes before they occur using structured risk analysis
Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.