Loading...
Loading...
Found 27 Skills
Use when making predictions or judgments under uncertainty and need to explicitly update beliefs with new evidence. Invoke when forecasting outcomes, evaluating probabilities, testing hypotheses, calibrating confidence, assessing risks with uncertain data, or avoiding overconfidence bias. Use when user mentions priors, likelihoods, Bayes theorem, probability updates, forecasting, calibration, or belief revision.
Use when investigating why something happened and need to distinguish correlation from causation, identify root causes vs symptoms, test competing hypotheses, control for confounding variables, or design experiments to validate causal claims. Invoke when debugging systems, analyzing failures, researching health outcomes, evaluating policy impacts, or when user mentions root cause, causal chain, confounding, spurious correlation, or asks "why did this really happen?"
Assumption mapping and product hypothesis testing frameworks for validating product ideas.
Perform statistical hypothesis testing, regression analysis, ANOVA, and t-tests with plain-English interpretations and visualizations.
Senior AI Product Manager. Expert in Probabilistic Strategy, Rapid Agentic Prototyping, and Hypothesis Generation for 2026.
Generate a Lean Canvas with problem, solution, metrics, cost structure, UVP, unfair advantage, channels, segments, and revenue. Use when exploring a lean startup canvas, testing a business hypothesis, or modeling a new venture.
Designs an A/B test or experiment with clear hypothesis, variants, success metrics, sample size, and duration. Use when planning experiments to validate product changes or test hypotheses.
Decision-grade entity research skill — produces a hypothesis-tested dossier on a specific company, person, nonprofit, or government org, not a generic profile. Forcing intake makes the user state their hypothesis upfront (what they already believe and want to verify or disprove) so the dossier tests it rather than confirms it. Output is an editable Word document (.docx) with verdict on the hypothesis, identity facts, 12-month activity timeline, network signals, reputation signals, red flags, 3-5 conversation hooks tied to specific findings, and source-provenance audit log. Uses WebSearch + WebFetch + free APIs (SEC EDGAR, GitHub, ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer) as workhorses; optional BYOK MCPs (LinkedIn, Crunchbase, Apollo, Pitchbook, SimilarWeb) enhance coverage. Triggers: 'research [company]', 'dossier on [person/company]', 'background check on [entity]', 'prep me for a meeting with [person/company]', 'due diligence on [company]', 'what should I know about [entity]', 'research [person] before I [meet/hire/invest]', 'competitor research on [company]', 'investor diligence [company]', 'interview prep for [company]'. Honors sensitivity exclusions for journalism + personal-vetting contexts.
Statistical analysis: t-tests, chi-squared, Mann-Whitney, p-values, CIs, Bonferroni/BH, Bayesian A/B
Run hypothesis tests, analyze A/B experiment results, calculate sample sizes, and interpret statistical significance with effect sizes. Use when you need to validate whether observed differences are real, size an experiment correctly before launch, or interpret test results with confidence.
Comprehensive statistical analysis for research, experiments, and data science. Covers hypothesis testing, effect sizes, confidence intervals, Bayesian methods, regression, and advanced techniques. Emphasizes correct interpretation and avoiding common statistical mistakes. Use when ", " mentioned.
Apply statistical methods to financial data including descriptive statistics, covariance estimation, regression, hypothesis testing, and resampling. Use when the user asks about return distributions, correlation between assets, building a covariance matrix, running a CAPM regression, testing whether alpha is significant, checking if returns are normal, or estimating confidence intervals. Also trigger when users mention 'volatility', 'how correlated are these', 'fat tails', 'skewness', 'R-squared', 'beta of a fund', 'bootstrap a Sharpe ratio', 'shrinkage estimator', 'Ledoit-Wolf', or ask why their optimizer produces unstable weights.