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Found 123 Skills
Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.
"Invert, always invert." Apply Carl Jacobi's mathematical principle and Charlie Munger's investing wisdom to solve problems by thinking backward from failure. Use when: **Goal setting** - Define what would guarantee failure, then avoid it; **Risk analysis** - Identify what could destroy your project before starting; **Decision making** - Evaluate choices by examining their worst outcomes; **Problem solving** - When direct approaches aren't working, reverse the question; **Strategy development...
Use this when you need to evaluate the risks and benefits of accepting, negotiating before accepting, pausing, or rejecting outsourcing projects, internal projects, or requirements. It is particularly suitable for scenarios with ambiguity in scope, acceptance criteria, payment terms, compliance, project timelines, or dependencies, as well as high-uncertainty situations such as emergency task insertion, contract renewal/modification, multi-requirement prioritization, or AI/LLM-related initiatives.